Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
F options intelligence
Ford Motor Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
46
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:02 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
F currently carries bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.
Expected move
3.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.06
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.45
Call-side skew
Trend fit
53
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+5.0%
RS 5.3
Expected move
3.1%
Put-call volume
0.45
Volume / OI
0.06
Reference IV
0.75
Max pain
14.50
Underlying
14.37
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
938
Research Brief
F has a bullish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 13.92–14.82; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.
Priced range13.92–14.82
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference14.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 13.92 to 14.82. Max pain at 14.50 sits inside that range, 0.9% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
13.9214.37 ± 0.4514.82
Confirmation level
A close beyond 14.82 or below 13.92 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 46/100
Pressure is 40/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure40 × 42%
+16.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement53 × 26%
+13.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility65 × 10%
+6.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
303
5.00-65.2%
366
5
9.00-37.4%
527
1644
12.00-16.5%
156
10157
12.50-13.0%
290
3688
13.00-9.5%
373
8744
13.50-6.1%
1615
6885
14.00-2.6%
7858
4795
14.500.9%
8409
3394
15.004.4%
16160
2163
15.507.9%
8099
1975
16.0011.3%
10516
154
16.5014.8%
6071
25
17.0018.3%
9896
42
17.5021.8%
6244
3
18.0025.3%
3927
0
18.5028.7%
818
0
23.0060.1%
673
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.75
31 Jul
1d
0.41
7 Aug
8d
0.39
14 Aug
15d
0.37
21 Aug
22d
0.35
28 Aug
29d
0.35
4 Sep
36d
0.22
11 Sep
43d
0.35
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 938 / 938
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $5.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+40
1W price+5.0%
Call premium79%
Put premium21%
Notional split
C 79% / P 21%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.06
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
53/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 4584 contracts traded, $1.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$1.4M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 5755 contracts traded, $888533 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$888533
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1528 contracts traded, $513807 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$513807
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1717 contracts traded, $436509 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$436509
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 16832 contracts traded, $400348 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$400348
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close14.68
1W+5.0%
RS5.3
Fair value+34.3%
Options pressure40
Speculation41
Volatility65
Trend fit53
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:06
Bullish
Pressure 18
Move 7.1%
30 Jul 10:04
Volatility
Pressure 48
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 10:02
Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 3.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike5.00
Calls · V 76 · OI 366
Puts · V 39 · OI 303
Strike6.00
Calls · V 87 · OI 168
Puts · V 43 · OI 47
Strike7.00
Calls · V 100 · OI 153
Puts · V 50 · OI 24
Strike8.00
Calls · V 194 · OI 92
Puts · V 0 · OI 39
Strike8.50
Calls · V 163 · OI 35
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike9.00
Calls · V 123 · OI 527
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike9.50
Calls · V 141 · OI 431
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike10.00
Calls · V 300 · OI 196
Puts · V 1 · OI 31
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.75
Put-call0.62
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.28
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.18
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.34
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.46
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.68
Skew0.20
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.39
Skew-
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.40
Skew0.05
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.40
Skew0.05
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.39
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractF260731C00015000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike15.00
Volume12820
OI16160
IV0.48
ContractF260731P00015000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike15.00
Volume6975
OI3394
IV0.38
ContractF260731C00015500
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike15.50
Volume6873
OI8099
IV0.51
ContractF260731P00014500
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike14.50
Volume6840
OI4795
IV0.47
ContractF260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume5180
OI13678
IV0.33
ContractF260807C00015000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume4158
OI3479
IV0.39
ContractF260918P00014000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike14.00
Volume3627
OI22883
IV0.38
ContractF260814C00016000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume3437
OI3655
IV0.37
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.