Ticker Options Intelligence

CABA options intelligence

Cabaletta Bio Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 40 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 02:56 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

CABA currently carries bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 16.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 16.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.23

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.4%

RS -7.6

Expected move 16.8%
Put-call volume 0.23
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.61
Max pain 2.50
Underlying 2.68
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 138

Research Brief

CABA has a bullish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 2.23–3.13; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 3.00.

Priced range2.23–3.13
Call concentration2.50
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 2.23 to 3.13. Max pain at 2.50 sits inside that range, 6.7% below spot.

Spot Max pain
2.232.68 ± 0.453.13
Confirmation level

A close beyond 3.13 or below 2.23 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 40/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 74/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure74 × 42%
+31.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility83 × 10%
+8.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score39.6Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 3.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
9
0.50-81.3%
37
2
1.00-62.7%
26
5
1.50-44.0%
46
2
2.00-25.4%
58
471
2.50-6.7%
37851
293
3.0011.9%
11216
16
3.5030.6%
1279
42
4.0049.3%
526
10
4.5067.9%
48
19
5.0086.6%
716
0
5.50105.2%
11
0
7.50179.9%
920
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.43× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.61 21 Aug 21d
0.93 18 Sep 49d
1.39 20 Nov 112d
1.43 15 Jan 168d
1.35 19 Feb 203d
1.41 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

3
3
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
138 / 138
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

84/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3005 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+74
1W price-0.4%
Call premium91%
Put premium9%
Notional split C 91% / P 9% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $1658 estimated gross traded notional, and 55% of visible notional.
$1658
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $710 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$710
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $195 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$195
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $188 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$188
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $180 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$180

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close2.68
1W-0.4%
RS-7.6
Fair value-61.4%
Options pressure74
Speculation1
Volatility83
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 16.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.61 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.23 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:21 Volatility
Pressure -84
Move 17.7%
30 Jul 11:09 Volatility
Pressure 91
Move 14.9%
31 Jul 10:44 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 18.6%
1 Aug 05:52 Bullish
Pressure 74
Move 16.7%
2 Aug 01:56 Bullish
Pressure 74
Move 16.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike0.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 37
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 26
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike1.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 46
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike2.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 58
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 37851
Puts · V 5 · OI 471
Strike3.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 11216
Puts · V 0 · OI 293
Strike3.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1279
Puts · V 0 · OI 16
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 526
Puts · V 0 · OI 42

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.61
Put-call0.31
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.93
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV1.39
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV1.43
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV1.35
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.03
Put IV0.93
Skew-0.10
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.58
Put IV1.81
Skew0.23
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV1.74
Skew1.46
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.42
Put IV1.35
Skew-0.07
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.46
Put IV1.38
Skew-0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCABA260821C00003000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike3.00
Volume13
OI11216
IV1.03
ContractCABA270115C00002000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike2.00
Volume13
OI135
IV1.45
ContractCABA280121C00005500
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike5.50
Volume5
OI542
IV1.44
ContractCABA260821P00002500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume5
OI471
IV0.93
ContractCABA260821C00002000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.00
Volume3
OI58
IV0.01
ContractCABA260918P00003000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike3.00
Volume3
OI51
IV1.10
ContractCABA270115C00003500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike3.50
Volume1
OI769
IV1.16
ContractCABA260821C00002500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI37851
IV0.79