Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
AJG options intelligence
Arthur J Gallagher & Co options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 18:54 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
AJG currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.17.
Expected move
6.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.17
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.03
Balanced tape
Trend fit
69
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.7%
RS -7.4
Expected move
6.5%
Put-call volume
1.03
Volume / OI
0.17
Reference IV
0.38
Max pain
240.00
Underlying
247.77
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
188
Research Brief
AJG has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 231.62–263.92; The largest call open-interest concentration is 280.00; the largest put concentration is 230.00. The most active strike by current volume is 200.00.
Priced range231.62–263.92
Call concentration280.00
Put concentration230.00
Max pain reference240.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 231.62 to 263.92. Max pain at 240.00 sits inside that range, 3.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
231.62247.77 ± 16.15263.92
Confirmation level
A close beyond 263.92 or below 231.62 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 5/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure5 × 42%
+2.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement69 × 26%
+18.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility53 × 10%
+5.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 280.00; the largest put concentration is 230.00. The most active strike by current volume is 200.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
6
150.00-39.5%
2
100
155.00-37.4%
0
10
175.00-29.4%
0
165
185.00-25.3%
0
8
190.00-23.3%
0
36
195.00-21.3%
0
122
200.00-19.3%
5
152
210.00-15.2%
4
240
220.00-11.2%
38
355
230.00-7.2%
164
200
240.00-3.1%
474
240
250.000.9%
195
86
260.004.9%
83
0
270.009.0%
142
0
280.0013.0%
596
0
290.0017.0%
160
0
300.0021.1%
135
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.38
21 Aug
21d
0.36
18 Sep
49d
0.36
16 Oct
77d
0.37
18 Dec
140d
0.36
15 Jan
168d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 188 / 188
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.2M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+5
1W price+0.7%
Call premium69%
Put premium31%
Notional split
C 69% / P 31%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.17
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
69/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 186 contracts traded, $527050 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$527050
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 122 contracts traded, $489236 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$489236
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 131 contracts traded, $234165 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$234165
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 35 contracts traded, $170760 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$170760
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $143350 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$143350
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close249.42
1W+0.7%
RS-7.4
Fair value-4.9%
Options pressure5
Speculation42
Volatility53
Trend fit69
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:08
Mixed
Pressure -14
Move 10.0%
30 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 10.7%
31 Jul 05:26
Bearish
Pressure -38
Move 8.1%
31 Jul 13:40
Mixed
Pressure 0
Move 8.4%
31 Jul 14:13
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 7.0%
31 Jul 15:36
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 6.4%
31 Jul 16:46
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 6.7%
31 Jul 17:54
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 6.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike150.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 1 · OI 6
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 100 · OI 100
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 4
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 10
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.38
Put-call1.77
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts23
Avg IV0.36
Put-call1.27
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.61
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.55
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts35
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.71
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.03
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.05
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.05
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.33
Skew-0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAJG260918C00330000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike330.00
Volume-
OI60
IV0.55
ContractAJG261016C00195000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike195.00
Volume-
OI9
IV0.00
ContractAJG270115P00120000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike120.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.62
ContractAJG261016C00360000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike360.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.54
ContractAJG261016C00370000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike370.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.56
ContractAJG270115P00190000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike190.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.40
ContractAJG261016P00160000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike160.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.71
ContractAJG261016P00140000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike140.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.80
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.