Ticker Options Intelligence

GABC options intelligence

German American Bancorp Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 46 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 15:03 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

GABC currently carries bearish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 6.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call -

Balanced tape

Trend fit 16

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +5.1%

RS 12.1

Expected move 6.5%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 0.25
Max pain 22.50
Underlying 50.88
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 80

Research Brief

GABC has a bearish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 47.60–54.16; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00.

Priced range47.60–54.16
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration22.50
Max pain reference22.50
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 47.60 to 54.16. Max pain at 22.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
47.6050.88 ± 3.2854.16
Confirmation level

A close beyond 54.16 or below 47.60 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 46/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 88/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure88 × 42%
+37.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement16 × 26%
+4.1

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility44 × 10%
+4.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score45.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
22.50-55.8%
0
0
25.00-50.9%
0
0
30.00-41.0%
0
0
35.00-31.2%
0
0
40.00-21.4%
0
0
45.00-11.6%
0
0
50.00-1.7%
6
0
55.008.1%
0
0
60.0017.9%
0
0
65.0027.8%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.31× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.25 21 Aug 21d
0.27 18 Sep 49d
0.22 18 Dec 140d
0.19 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

45
50
55
60
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
80 / 80
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

94/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow against rising price

Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $696 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · atm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-88
1W price+5.1%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split C 0% / P 100% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 16/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 6 contracts traded, $696 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$696

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close50.88
1W+5.1%
RS12.1
Fair value+39.7%
Options pressure-88
Speculation1
Volatility44
Trend fit16

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.25 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call - history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:05 Bearish
Pressure -88
Move 10.4%
30 Jul 10:53 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 4.0%
31 Jul 11:36 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 7.2%
1 Aug 14:03 Bearish
Pressure -88
Move 6.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 6 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.27
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.19
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.04
Skew-0.10
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.24
Skew0.03
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.43
Skew0.39
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.23
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractGABC260821P00050000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume6
OI-
IV0.04
ContractGABC261218C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI85
IV0.21
ContractGABC260918C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI47
IV0.20
ContractGABC260918C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI18
IV0.35
ContractGABC260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.33
ContractGABC260918C00022500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI4
IV1.41
ContractGABC260918C00055000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.21
ContractGABC270319C00050000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.20