Ticker Options Intelligence

PRAA options intelligence

PRA Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 48 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 18:29 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

PRAA currently carries volatility options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 17.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.15.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 17.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.15

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.40

Call-side skew

Trend fit 47

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -6.3%

RS -5.0

Expected move 17.8%
Put-call volume 0.40
Volume / OI 0.15
Reference IV 1.74
Max pain 15.00
Underlying 16.98
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 40

Research Brief

PRAA has a volatility chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 13.96–20.00; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00.

Priced range13.96–20.00
Call concentration17.50
Put concentration5.00
Max pain reference15.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 13.96 to 20.00. Max pain at 15.00 sits inside that range, 11.7% below spot.

Spot Max pain
13.9616.98 ± 3.0220.00
Confirmation level

A close beyond 20.00 or below 13.96 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 48/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 54/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure54 × 42%
+22.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation14 × 22%
+3.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement47 × 26%
+12.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score47.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
5.00-70.6%
0
1
15.00-11.7%
1
0
17.503.1%
6
0
20.0017.8%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.81× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.74 21 Aug 21d
0.73 18 Sep 49d
0.64 18 Dec 140d
0.62 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

15
18
20
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
40 / 40
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

84/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $41608 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+54
1W price-6.3%
Call premium84%
Put premium16%
Notional split C 84% / P 16% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.15 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 47/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 24 contracts traded, $27465 estimated gross traded notional, and 66% of visible notional.
$27465
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 40 contracts traded, $5732 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$5732
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $3515 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$3515
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 16 contracts traded, $2125 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$2125
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $1110 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$1110

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close16.98
1W-6.3%
RS-5.0
Fair value-11.9%
Options pressure54
Speculation14
Volatility96
Trend fit47

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 17.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.74 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.40 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.15 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:22 Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 15.2%
30 Jul 11:10 Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 15.6%
31 Jul 13:04 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 17.4%
31 Jul 15:48 Volatility
Pressure 54
Move 17.8%
31 Jul 16:56 Volatility
Pressure 54
Move 17.8%
31 Jul 17:29 Volatility
Pressure 54
Move 17.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike17.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts5
Avg IV1.74
Put-call0.33
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.73
Put-call1.33
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts23
Avg IV0.64
Put-call0.31
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts2
Avg IV0.62
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.86
Put IV0.98
Skew0.11
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.86
Skew0.16
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.69
Skew0.06
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.61
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPRAA261218C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI14
IV0.83
ContractPRAA261218P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI11
IV2.37
ContractPRAA260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI8
IV0.92
ContractPRAA261218P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI4
IV3.61
ContractPRAA270319C00020000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.63
ContractPRAA261218C00027500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike27.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.80
ContractPRAA261218P00007500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI1
IV1.71
ContractPRAA270319C00017500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.61