Ticker Options Intelligence

FLUT options intelligence

Flutter Entertainment plc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 45 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 22:50 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

FLUT currently carries volatility options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 11.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.15

Balanced tape

Trend fit 76

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +3.2%

RS -45.5

Expected move 11.9%
Put-call volume 1.15
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.64
Max pain 110.00
Underlying 104.47
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 492

Research Brief

FLUT has a volatility chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 92.02–116.92; The largest call open-interest concentration is 120.00; the largest put concentration is 90.00. The most active strike by current volume is 100.00.

Priced range92.02–116.92
Call concentration120.00
Put concentration90.00
Max pain reference110.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 92.02 to 116.92. Max pain at 110.00 sits inside that range, 5.3% above spot.

Spot Max pain
92.02104.47 ± 12.45116.92
Confirmation level

A close beyond 116.92 or below 92.02 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 45/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 19/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure19 × 42%
+8.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement76 × 26%
+19.8

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility85 × 10%
+8.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score45.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 120.00; the largest put concentration is 90.00. The most active strike by current volume is 100.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
184
75.00-28.2%
0
104
80.00-23.4%
14
295
85.00-18.6%
8
764
90.00-13.9%
8
261
95.00-9.1%
25
459
100.00-4.3%
55
102
105.000.5%
84
156
110.005.3%
387
48
115.0010.1%
111
14
120.0014.9%
589
55
125.0019.7%
276
0
130.0024.4%
71
1
135.0029.2%
66
1
140.0034.0%
43
0
145.0038.8%
52
0
150.0043.6%
127
0
155.0048.4%
51
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.19× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.64 21 Aug 21d
0.55 18 Sep 49d
0.54 18 Dec 140d
0.53 15 Jan 168d
0.53 19 Mar 231d
0.53 17 Jun 321d
0.54 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
492 / 492
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

86/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-19
1W price+3.2%
Call premium54%
Put premium46%
Notional split C 54% / P 46% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 76/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 300 contracts traded, $1.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 37% of visible notional.
$1.4M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 82 contracts traded, $974255 estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$974255
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 96 contracts traded, $283480 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$283480
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 882 contracts traded, $266360 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$266360
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 204 contracts traded, $210985 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$210985

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close104.47
1W+3.2%
RS-45.5
Fair value-48.7%
Options pressure-19
Speculation41
Volatility85
Trend fit76

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 11.9% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.64 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.15 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:20 Volatility
Pressure -58
Move 14.5%
30 Jul 10:15 Bearish
Pressure -24
Move 14.1%
31 Jul 10:06 Volatility
Pressure -61
Move 12.0%
1 Aug 21:50 Volatility
Pressure -19
Move 11.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 18
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 184
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 104
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 282 · OI 295
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 6 · OI 764

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.64
Put-call5.64
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts82
Avg IV0.55
Put-call0.28
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.32
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts114
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.30
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts46
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.64
Skew-0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.55
Skew0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.55
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.53
Skew0.03
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.54
Skew0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractFLUT260821P00100000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume586
OI459
IV0.64
ContractFLUT260821P00085000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike85.00
Volume282
OI295
IV0.68
ContractFLUT270115C00060000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike60.00
Volume261
OI3
IV0.64
ContractFLUT260918C00120000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike120.00
Volume237
OI840
IV0.55
ContractFLUT260821P00105000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume114
OI102
IV0.60
ContractFLUT260821P00110000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike110.00
Volume75
OI156
IV0.59
ContractFLUT260918P00135000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike135.00
Volume70
OI113
IV0.53
ContractFLUT270617C00140000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike140.00
Volume70
OI6
IV0.51