Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
BITI options intelligence
PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 11:12 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
BITI currently carries bullish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.
Expected move
8.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.06
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.05
Call-side skew
Trend fit
10
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.9%
RS 9.2
Expected move
8.4%
Put-call volume
0.05
Volume / OI
0.06
Reference IV
0.44
Max pain
25.00
Underlying
25.63
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
262
Research Brief
BITI has a bullish chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 23.48–27.78; The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 23.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00.
Priced range23.48–27.78
Call concentration25.00
Put concentration23.00
Max pain reference25.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 23.48 to 27.78. Max pain at 25.00 sits inside that range, 2.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
23.4825.63 ± 2.1527.78
Confirmation level
A close beyond 27.78 or below 23.48 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 98/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure98 × 42%
+41.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation11 × 22%
+2.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement10 × 26%
+2.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility64 × 10%
+6.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 23.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
16.00-37.6%
0
1
19.00-25.9%
0
11
20.00-22.0%
5
10
22.00-14.2%
2
173
23.00-10.3%
3
170
24.00-6.4%
20
73
25.00-2.5%
254
21
26.001.4%
141
35
27.005.3%
88
8
28.009.2%
233
0
29.0013.1%
133
0
30.0017.1%
208
1
31.0021.0%
28
0
32.0024.9%
3
9
33.0028.8%
11
1
34.0032.7%
4
1
36.0040.5%
38
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$299,989Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak25.00+$112,717
Negative peak24.00-$10,104
Nearest balance24.08Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
16.00-37.6%
-$23
17.00-33.7%
-$116
18.00-29.8%
-$2,235
19.00-25.9%
-$229
20.00-22.0%
-$917
21.00-18.1%
-$175
22.00-14.2%
-$3,012
23.00-10.3%
-$5,077
24.00-6.4%
-$10,104
25.00-2.5%
+$112,717
26.001.4%
+$30,748
27.005.3%
+$28,460
28.009.2%
+$75,799
29.0013.1%
+$12,279
30.0017.1%
+$17,490
31.0021.0%
+$6,018
32.0024.9%
-$332
33.0028.8%
+$732
34.0032.7%
-$538
35.0036.6%
+$1,587
36.0040.5%
+$56
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.44
21 Aug
21d
0.44
18 Sep
49d
0.62
18 Dec
140d
0.61
15 Jan
168d
0.58
19 Mar
231d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 262 / 262
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $443,695 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+98
1W price+1.9%
Call premium98%
Put premium2%
Notional split
C 98% / P 2%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.06
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
10/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 303 contracts traded, $290,415 estimated gross traded notional, and 65% of visible notional.
$290,415
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 281 contracts traded, $112,712 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$112,712
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $20,200 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$20,200
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 122 contracts traded, $7,092 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$7,092
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
puts cluster with 24 contracts traded, $5,040 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$5,040
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close25.63
1W+1.9%
RS9.2
Fair value-23.5%
Options pressure98
Speculation11
Volatility64
Trend fit10
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:00
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.2%
30 Jul 11:35
Bullish
Pressure 80
Move 9.3%
31 Jul 11:12
Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 8.2%
3 Aug 10:12
Bullish
Pressure 98
Move 8.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike16.00
Calls · V 300 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike19.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike21.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike23.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 173
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.04
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.07
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.62
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts66
Avg IV0.61
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts42
Avg IV0.58
Put-call1.20
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.58
Skew0.35
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.60
Skew0.24
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.87
Skew0.63
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.94
Skew0.61
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.95
Skew0.54
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractBITI260821C00016000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume300
OI-
IV0.01
ContractBITI260918C00022000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.00
Volume250
OI204
IV0.01
ContractBITI270115C00040000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike40.00
Volume64
OI3252
IV0.40
ContractBITI270115C00041000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike41.00
Volume33
OI275
IV0.65
ContractBITI260918C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume31
OI282
IV0.38
ContractBITI260821C00026000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike26.00
Volume28
OI141
IV0.31
ContractBITI260918P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume24
OI43
IV0.67
ContractBITI261218C00028000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike28.00
Volume20
OI19
IV0.24
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.