Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CCL options intelligence
Carnival Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
52
Market data through 29 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 11:07 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CCL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
6.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.71
Put-side skew
Trend fit
87
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-0.3%
RS -14.0
Expected move
6.0%
Put-call volume
1.71
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.84
Max pain
27.00
Underlying
26.33
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
776
Research Brief
CCL has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 24.74–27.92; The largest call open-interest concentration is 27.50; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 29.00.
Priced range24.74–27.92
Call concentration27.50
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference27.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 24.74 to 27.92. Max pain at 27.00 sits inside that range, 2.5% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
24.7426.33 ± 1.5927.92
Confirmation level
A close beyond 27.92 or below 24.74 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 52/100
Pressure is 29/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure29 × 42%
+12.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement87 × 26%
+22.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility80 × 10%
+8.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 27.50; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 29.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
532
19.00-27.8%
38
878
22.00-16.4%
26
774
23.00-12.6%
17
1009
24.00-8.8%
33
4968
25.00-5.1%
162
1006
25.50-3.2%
117
1842
26.00-1.3%
1215
1823
26.500.6%
1546
1591
27.002.5%
5029
506
27.504.4%
7230
1736
28.006.3%
4172
185
28.508.2%
1928
905
29.0010.1%
3314
20
29.5012.0%
1439
67
30.0013.9%
1719
11
31.0017.7%
515
6
32.0021.5%
1079
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.84
31 Jul
1d
0.52
7 Aug
8d
0.54
14 Aug
15d
0.52
21 Aug
22d
0.48
28 Aug
29d
0.47
4 Sep
36d
0.47
18 Sep
50d
0.51
16 Oct
78d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
31
31
32
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 29 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v1.x legacy
- Contracts
- 776 / 776
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.3M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-29
1W price-0.3%
Call premium39%
Put premium61%
Notional split
C 39% / P 61%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
87/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 944 contracts traded, $736248 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$736248
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 274 contracts traded, $364420 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$364420
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1821 contracts traded, $346131 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$346131
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 3477 contracts traded, $262445 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$262445
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2094 contracts traded, $236242 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$236242
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 1 completed session
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close26.33
1W-0.3%
RS-14.0
Fair value+20.1%
Options pressure-29
Speculation41
Volatility80
Trend fit87
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:11
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 7.5%
30 Jul 10:07
Volatility
Pressure -29
Move 6.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike15.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 28
Puts · V 3 · OI 25
Strike16.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 48
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike17.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 56
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike18.00
Calls · V 9 · OI 35
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike19.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 38
Puts · V 2 · OI 532
Strike20.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 12
Puts · V 0 · OI 41
Strike21.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 287
Strike22.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 26
Puts · V 3 · OI 878
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.84
Put-call1.61
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.52
Put-call2.42
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.54
Put-call1.73
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.52
Put-call1.34
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.20
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.78
Put IV0.72
Skew-0.06
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.57
Skew0.16
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.52
Skew0.07
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.53
Skew0.08
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.52
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCCL260918P00023000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike23.00
Volume3012
OI6680
IV0.52
ContractCCL260807P00026500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike26.50
Volume1636
OI150
IV0.56
ContractCCL260814P00025000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume1421
OI91
IV0.54
ContractCCL260918P00027000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike27.00
Volume1376
OI9191
IV0.50
ContractCCL260731P00027000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike27.00
Volume1342
OI1591
IV0.69
ContractCCL260731P00029000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike29.00
Volume1245
OI905
IV0.67
ContractCCL260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume1166
OI5093
IV0.45
ContractCCL260821P00025500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.50
Volume1006
OI590
IV0.53
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.