Ticker Options Intelligence

PBA options intelligence

Pembina Pipeline Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 44 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 20:44 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

PBA currently carries bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 4.1%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.47

Call-side skew

Trend fit 51

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -4.7%

RS 8.6

Expected move 4.1%
Put-call volume 0.47
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.48
Max pain 40.00
Underlying 51.37
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 43

Research Brief

PBA has a bullish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 49.24–53.50; The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00.

Priced range49.24–53.50
Call concentration55.00
Put concentration35.00
Max pain reference40.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 49.24 to 53.50. Max pain at 40.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
49.2451.37 ± 2.1353.50
Confirmation level

A close beyond 53.50 or below 49.24 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 44/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 47/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure47 × 42%
+19.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation27 × 22%
+6.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement51 × 26%
+13.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility50 × 10%
+5.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score43.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
20.00-61.1%
0
0
22.50-56.2%
0
0
25.00-51.3%
0
0
30.00-41.6%
0
399
35.00-31.9%
3
32
40.00-22.1%
112
24
45.00-12.4%
474
59
50.00-2.7%
707
7
55.007.1%
5715
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.37× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.48 21 Aug 21d
0.28 18 Sep 49d
0.37 20 Nov 112d
0.35 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

45
50
55
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
43 / 43
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

78/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $65354 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+47
1W price-4.7%
Call premium88%
Put premium12%
Notional split C 88% / P 12% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 51/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 24 contracts traded, $32645 estimated gross traded notional, and 50% of visible notional.
$32645
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 59 contracts traded, $23260 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$23260
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 38 contracts traded, $2932 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$2932
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $2750 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$2750
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 22 contracts traded, $1582 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$1582

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close48.93
1W-4.7%
RS8.6
Fair value+36.5%
Options pressure47
Speculation27
Volatility50
Trend fit51

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 4.1% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.48 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.47 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:15 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.3%
30 Jul 10:11 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.7%
30 Jul 23:07 Bullish
Pressure 41
Move 5.1%
31 Jul 11:37 Bullish
Pressure 63
Move 5.1%
31 Jul 19:44 Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 4.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 3
Puts · V 3 · OI 399
Strike40.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 112
Puts · V 10 · OI 32
Strike45.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 474
Puts · V 7 · OI 24
Strike50.00
Calls · V 48 · OI 707
Puts · V 17 · OI 59

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts15
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.47
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV0.28
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts15
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.44
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts10
Avg IV0.35
Put-call1.22

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.23
Skew-0.13
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV-
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.45
Skew0.22
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.25
Skew-0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPBA260918P00055000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI50
IV0.37
ContractPBA270219P00035000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.39
ContractPBA270219C00035000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.58
ContractPBA270219C00060000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.27
ContractPBA270219C00070000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.30
ContractPBA261120P00065000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractPBA260821C00022500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractPBA260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume48
OI707
IV0.23