Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
USAX options intelligence
Tradr 2X Long USAR Daily ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
63
Market data through 5 Aug 2026
Checked 5 Aug 2026 15:30 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
USAX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 63/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 52.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.60.
Expected move
52.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.60
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.03
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+8.5%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
52.5%
Put-call volume
0.03
Volume / OI
0.60
Reference IV
2.29
Max pain
8.00
Underlying
8.53
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
68
Research Brief
USAX has a volatility chain read with 63/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 4.05–13.00; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 8.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.00.
Priced range4.05–13.00
Call concentration12.00
Put concentration8.00
Max pain reference8.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 4.05 to 13.00. Max pain at 8.00 sits inside that range, 6.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
4.058.53 ± 4.4813.00
Confirmation level
A close beyond 13.00 or below 4.05 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 63/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation54 × 22%
+11.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 8.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
5.00-41.4%
0
0
6.00-29.6%
20
0
7.00-17.9%
6
14
8.00-6.2%
0
0
9.005.6%
30
1
11.0029.0%
0
3
12.0040.7%
98
0
13.0052.5%
80
0
14.0064.2%
24
0
15.0075.9%
45
2
16.0087.7%
0
1
17.0099.4%
0
8
20.00134.6%
1
1
22.00158.0%
0
1
24.00181.5%
0
0
33.00287.1%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$2,294Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.00+$687
Negative peak8.00-$80
Nearest balance8.20Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
5.00-41.4%
+$2
6.00-29.6%
+$58
7.00-17.9%
+$79
8.00-6.2%
-$80
9.005.6%
+$316
10.0017.3%
+$139
11.0029.0%
-$7
12.0040.7%
+$687
13.0052.5%
+$527
14.0064.2%
+$225
15.0075.9%
+$194
16.0087.7%
-$8
17.0099.4%
-$4
18.00111.1%
+$2
19.00122.8%
+$3
20.00134.6%
+$67
21.00146.3%
+$29
22.00158.0%
+$12
23.00169.8%
+$11
24.00181.5%
-$3
25.00193.2%
+$8
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
2.29
21 Aug
16d
1.93
18 Sep
44d
1.83
18 Dec
135d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
7
8
9
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 5 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 68 / 68
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $133,884 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+8.5%
Call premium91%
Put premium9%
Notional split
C 91% / P 9%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.60
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 123 contracts traded, $60,671 estimated gross traded notional, and 45% of visible notional.
$60,671
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 114 contracts traded, $22,335 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$22,335
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 25 contracts traded, $16,625 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$16,625
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 37 contracts traded, $12,202 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$12,202
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 6 contracts traded, $9,234 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$9,234
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
6 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 6 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close8.53
1W+8.5%
RS-
Fair value-62.4%
Options pressure100
Speculation54
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:19
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 38.8%
30 Jul 13:08
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 38.8%
31 Jul 12:44
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 37.8%
2 Aug 07:59
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 37.5%
3 Aug 17:20
Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 47.8%
3 Aug 18:17
Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 47.8%
3 Aug 19:24
Volatility
Pressure 99
Move 47.8%
4 Aug 04:34
Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 43.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike5.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike6.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 20
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 14
Strike9.00
Calls · V 36 · OI 30
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike12.00
Calls · V 45 · OI 98
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike13.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 80
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts19
Avg IV2.29
Put-call0.03
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV1.93
Put-call0.05
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts17
Avg IV1.83
Put-call0.02
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.88
Put IV2.63
Skew0.75
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.84
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.85
Put IV-
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUSAX260918P00013000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike13.00
Volume-
OI6
IV1.42
ContractUSAX261218C00022000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike22.00
Volume-
OI5
IV1.87
ContractUSAX260821P00012000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.00
Volume-
OI3
IV2.21
ContractUSAX260821P00016000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume-
OI2
IV2.34
ContractUSAX260918P00036000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike36.00
Volume-
OI2
IV2.36
ContractUSAX260918C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI2
IV6.41
ContractUSAX261218C00013000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike13.00
Volume-
OI2
IV1.86
ContractUSAX260821P00022000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.00
Volume-
OI1
IV2.72
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.