Ticker Options Intelligence

SERV options intelligence

Serve Robotics Inc. Common Stock options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 38 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 06:21 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

SERV currently carries bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 13.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 13.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.54

Call-side skew

Trend fit 16

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.6%

RS -56.6

Expected move 13.6%
Put-call volume 0.54
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 1.29
Max pain 7.00
Underlying 4.78
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 544

Research Brief

SERV has a bullish chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 4.13–5.43; The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.00; the largest put concentration is 8.50. The most active strike by current volume is 5.50.

Priced range4.13–5.43
Call concentration6.00
Put concentration8.50
Max pain reference7.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 4.13 to 5.43. Max pain at 7.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
4.134.78 ± 0.655.43
Confirmation level

A close beyond 5.43 or below 4.13 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 38/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 36/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure36 × 42%
+15.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement16 × 26%
+4.1

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score38.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 6.00; the largest put concentration is 8.50. The most active strike by current volume is 5.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
10
3.00-37.2%
0
124
4.00-16.3%
1
142
4.50-5.9%
161
292
5.004.6%
306
179
5.5015.1%
1022
193
6.0025.5%
1027
436
6.5036.0%
444
265
7.0046.4%
483
130
7.5056.9%
97
324
8.0067.4%
102
2139
8.5077.8%
36
601
9.0088.3%
59
38
9.5098.7%
20
65
10.00109.2%
100
8
10.50119.7%
4
10
11.00130.1%
11
0
12.00151.0%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.28× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.29 7 Aug 7d
1.21 14 Aug 14d
1.11 21 Aug 21d
1.09 28 Aug 28d
1.06 4 Sep 35d
1.06 11 Sep 42d
1.07 18 Sep 49d
1.06 20 Nov 112d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

4
5
5
6
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
544 / 544
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

88/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $990862 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+36
1W price-0.6%
Call premium37%
Put premium63%
Notional split C 37% / P 63% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 16/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 2047 contracts traded, $271215 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$271215
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM puts cluster with 780 contracts traded, $268512 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$268512
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 503 contracts traded, $170819 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$170819
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 592 contracts traded, $83916 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$83916
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 139 contracts traded, $49432 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$49432

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close4.78
1W-0.6%
RS-56.6
Fair value-49.5%
Options pressure36
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit16

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 13.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.29 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.54 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:18 Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 9.9%
30 Jul 11:03 Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 14.7%
31 Jul 11:04 Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 6.0%
31 Jul 12:32 Bullish
Pressure 42
Move 6.4%
2 Aug 05:21 Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 13.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike2.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 0
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 107 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike3.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike4.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 1
Puts · V 38 · OI 124
Strike4.50
Calls · V 82 · OI 161
Puts · V 96 · OI 142
Strike5.00
Calls · V 197 · OI 306
Puts · V 89 · OI 292

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV1.29
Put-call0.52
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV1.21
Put-call0.40
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV1.11
Put-call1.83
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV1.09
Put-call6.76
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV1.06
Put-call8.80

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.37
Put IV1.25
Skew-0.12
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.22
Put IV1.16
Skew-0.07
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.21
Put IV1.11
Skew-0.10
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.18
Put IV1.11
Skew-0.07
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.95
Put IV1.06
Skew0.11

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractSERV280121C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike10.00
Volume656
OI3827
IV1.03
ContractSERV260807C00005500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike5.50
Volume568
OI1022
IV1.37
ContractSERV260814C00007500
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume519
OI83
IV1.44
ContractSERV270219C00005000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike5.00
Volume365
OI280
IV0.94
ContractSERV260807P00005500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike5.50
Volume322
OI179
IV1.39
ContractSERV280121C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike5.00
Volume280
OI2858
IV1.05
ContractSERV260807C00006000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike6.00
Volume233
OI1027
IV1.45
ContractSERV260821P00004500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike4.50
Volume205
OI203
IV1.14