Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
MT options intelligence
ArcelorMittal SA ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 29 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 11:05 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
MT currently carries mixed options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
5.5%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.27
Put-side skew
Trend fit
90
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.6%
RS 24.5
Expected move
5.5%
Put-call volume
1.27
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.96
Max pain
66.00
Underlying
66.88
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
662
Research Brief
MT has a mixed chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 63.18–70.58; The largest call open-interest concentration is 66.00; the largest put concentration is 61.00. The most active strike by current volume is 61.00.
Priced range63.18–70.58
Call concentration66.00
Put concentration61.00
Max pain reference66.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 63.18 to 70.58. Max pain at 66.00 sits inside that range, 1.3% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
63.1866.88 ± 3.7070.58
Confirmation level
A close beyond 70.58 or below 63.18 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 9/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure9 × 42%
+3.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement90 × 26%
+23.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility78 × 10%
+7.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 66.00; the largest put concentration is 61.00. The most active strike by current volume is 61.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
50.00-25.2%
5
100
54.00-19.3%
5
103
55.00-17.8%
11
0
56.00-16.3%
10
2
57.00-14.8%
5
33
60.00-10.3%
4
115
61.00-8.8%
3
25
62.00-7.3%
2
2
64.00-4.3%
27
2
65.00-2.8%
5
15
66.00-1.3%
99
109
67.000.2%
83
1
68.001.7%
50
1
69.003.2%
8
0
70.004.7%
35
1
71.006.2%
45
2
73.009.2%
10
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.96
31 Jul
1d
0.46
7 Aug
8d
0.58
14 Aug
15d
0.55
21 Aug
22d
0.52
28 Aug
29d
0.51
4 Sep
36d
0.51
18 Sep
50d
0.50
18 Dec
141d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
54
55
57
58
59
60
62
63
64
66
67
68
70
71
72
74
75
76
77
79
80
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 29 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v1.x legacy
- Contracts
- 662 / 662
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $279367 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-9
1W price+0.6%
Call premium63%
Put premium37%
Notional split
C 63% / P 37%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
90/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 132 contracts traded, $115845 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$115845
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 288 contracts traded, $36570 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$36570
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 17 contracts traded, $25655 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$25655
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 118 contracts traded, $18420 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$18420
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 18 contracts traded, $17445 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$17445
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 1 completed session
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close66.88
1W+0.6%
RS24.5
Fair value+98.5%
Options pressure-9
Speculation40
Volatility78
Trend fit90
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:08
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 4.6%
30 Jul 10:05
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 5.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike47.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike48.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike49.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike50.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike51.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts86
Avg IV0.96
Put-call1.27
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.46
Put-call3.00
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.58
Put-call-
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.55
Put-call0.77
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.52
Put-call1.50
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.85
Put IV1.28
Skew0.43
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.08
Put IV0.54
Skew-0.54
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.83
Put IV0.60
Skew-0.23
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.55
Skew0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.57
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMT260918P00055000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike55.00
Volume284
OI275
IV0.54
ContractMT261218C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike65.00
Volume129
OI33
IV0.49
ContractMT260821C00069000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike69.00
Volume50
OI225
IV0.51
ContractMT260821C00074000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike74.00
Volume36
OI1
IV0.52
ContractMT260918C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume31
OI1134
IV0.52
ContractMT260918C00090000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike90.00
Volume29
OI261
IV0.54
ContractMT260821P00059000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike59.00
Volume21
OI43
IV0.58
ContractMT260731P00061000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike61.00
Volume20
OI115
IV0.97
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.