Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
ONDU options intelligence
Tradr 2X Long ONDS Daily ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
61
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 5 Aug 2026 12:35 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
ONDU currently carries volatility options pressure with a 61/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 31.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.12.
Expected move
31.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.12
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.00
Call-side skew
Trend fit
1
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-12.4%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
31.5%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.12
Reference IV
1.46
Max pain
7.00
Underlying
3.96
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
166
Research Brief
ONDU has a volatility chain read with 61/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 2.71–5.21; The largest call open-interest concentration is 8.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.
Priced range2.71–5.21
Call concentration8.00
Put concentration7.00
Max pain reference7.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 2.71 to 5.21. Max pain at 7.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
2.713.96 ± 1.255.21
Confirmation level
A close beyond 5.21 or below 2.71 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 61/100
Pressure is 99/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure99 × 42%
+41.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation43 × 22%
+9.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement1 × 26%
+0.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 8.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
1.00-74.7%
0
0
2.00-49.5%
0
0
3.00-24.2%
4
1
4.001.0%
3
0
5.0026.3%
4
0
6.0051.5%
25
52
7.0076.8%
10
1
8.00102.0%
30
0
9.00127.3%
0
0
10.00152.5%
8
0
11.00177.8%
0
0
12.00203.0%
0
0
13.00228.3%
0
0
14.00253.5%
18
0
15.00278.8%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$32Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak6.00+$55
Negative peak5.00-$48
Nearest balance3.43Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
1.00-74.7%
-$5
2.00-49.5%
+$0
3.00-24.2%
+$6
4.001.0%
-$8
5.0026.3%
-$48
6.0051.5%
+$55
7.0076.8%
-$45
8.00102.0%
+$7
9.00127.3%
-$21
10.00152.5%
+$16
11.00177.8%
-$0
12.00203.0%
+$1
13.00228.3%
+$22
14.00253.5%
-$17
15.00278.8%
+$7
16.00304.0%
-$1
18.00354.5%
+$0
20.00405.1%
+$1
23.00480.8%
+$3
25.00531.3%
-$2
26.00556.6%
+$2
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
1.46
21 Aug
17d
1.52
18 Sep
45d
1.72
18 Dec
136d
1.55
19 Mar
227d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
4
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 166 / 166
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $10,568 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+99
1W price-12.4%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.12
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
1/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 65 contracts traded, $4,375 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$4,375
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 25 contracts traded, $4,375 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$4,375
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $1,700 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$1,700
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $118 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$118
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close3.96
1W-12.4%
RS-
Fair value-59.2%
Options pressure99
Speculation43
Volatility96
Trend fit1
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:53
Volatility
Pressure 97
Move 49.2%
30 Jul 12:45
Volatility
Pressure 97
Move 62.5%
30 Jul 14:59
Volatility
Pressure -28
Move 104.0%
30 Jul 15:18
Volatility
Pressure -28
Move 104.0%
30 Jul 17:46
Volatility
Pressure -28
Move 101.8%
31 Jul 12:57
Volatility
Pressure 99
Move 63.6%
2 Aug 12:56
Volatility
Pressure 99
Move 43.6%
3 Aug 16:51
Volatility
Pressure -23
Move 45.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 25
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 52
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 30
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV1.46
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV1.52
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV1.72
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV1.55
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV2.21
Put IV1.39
Skew-0.82
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.88
Put IV0.85
Skew-1.02
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.75
Put IV0.50
Skew-0.24
19 Mar 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.86
Put IV0.40
Skew-1.46
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractONDU260918C00008000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike8.00
Volume45
OI46
IV1.88
ContractONDU261218C00012000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.00
Volume25
OI-
IV2.25
ContractONDU260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume20
OI1
IV0.78
ContractONDU260918C00004000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike4.00
Volume8
OI8
IV1.92
ContractONDU260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume1
OI4
IV2.06
ContractONDU261218P00001000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike1.00
Volume-
OI100
IV1.31
ContractONDU260918P00008000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike8.00
Volume-
OI69
IV2.29
ContractONDU261218P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI56
IV2.22
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.