Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
THG options intelligence
The Hanover Insurance Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
46
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 06:14 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
THG currently carries bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
4.5%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.00
Call-side skew
Trend fit
5
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+6.7%
RS 17.5
Expected move
4.5%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.19
Max pain
230.00
Underlying
232.63
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
188
Research Brief
THG has a bullish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 222.13–243.13; The largest call open-interest concentration is 210.00; the largest put concentration is 210.00. The most active strike by current volume is 230.00.
Priced range222.13–243.13
Call concentration210.00
Put concentration210.00
Max pain reference230.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 222.13 to 243.13. Max pain at 230.00 sits inside that range, 1.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
222.13232.63 ± 10.50243.13
Confirmation level
A close beyond 243.13 or below 222.13 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 46/100
Pressure is 93/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure93 × 42%
+39.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation9 × 22%
+1.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement5 × 26%
+1.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility31 × 10%
+3.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 210.00; the largest put concentration is 210.00. The most active strike by current volume is 230.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
105.00-54.9%
1
0
110.00-52.7%
0
2
125.00-46.3%
0
10
155.00-33.4%
0
3
160.00-31.2%
0
1
165.00-29.1%
0
10
170.00-26.9%
0
0
175.00-24.8%
1
1
180.00-22.6%
10
1
185.00-20.5%
12
0
190.00-18.3%
6
1
195.00-16.2%
6
9
200.00-14.0%
5
191
210.00-9.7%
75
7
220.00-5.4%
18
190
230.00-1.1%
1
0
240.003.2%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.19
21 Aug
21d
0.21
18 Sep
49d
0.23
20 Nov
112d
0.23
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
190
195
200
210
220
230
240
250
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 188 / 188
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $11890 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+93
1W price+6.7%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
5/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $8500 estimated gross traded notional, and 71% of visible notional.
$8500
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $2715 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$2715
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $675 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$675
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close232.63
1W+6.7%
RS17.5
Fair value+53.8%
Options pressure93
Speculation9
Volatility31
Trend fit5
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:34
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 5.8%
30 Jul 10:32
Bearish
Pressure -77
Move 7.1%
31 Jul 05:53
Bullish
Pressure 62
Move 6.2%
31 Jul 13:58
Bearish
Pressure -65
Move 6.4%
1 Aug 11:10
Bullish
Pressure 93
Move 7.0%
2 Aug 05:14
Bullish
Pressure 93
Move 4.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.19
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.21
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts46
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.05
Put IV0.24
Skew0.19
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.26
Skew0.06
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.25
Skew0.04
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.26
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTHG260918C00240000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike240.00
Volume20
OI-
IV0.20
ContractTHG260918C00230000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike230.00
Volume3
OI16
IV0.21
ContractTHG260821C00230000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume1
OI1
IV0.23
ContractTHG260821P00210000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI191
IV0.16
ContractTHG260821P00230000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume-
OI190
IV0.23
ContractTHG260821C00210000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI75
IV0.28
ContractTHG261120C00170000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike170.00
Volume-
OI40
IV0.01
ContractTHG261120C00195000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike195.00
Volume-
OI25
IV0.26
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.