Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PEN options intelligence
Penumbra Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 12:29 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
PEN currently carries bearish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
3.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
6.00
Put-side skew
Trend fit
54
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+0.8%
RS -3.5
Expected move
3.3%
Put-call volume
6.00
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.14
Max pain
350.00
Underlying
321.19
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
714
Research Brief
PEN has a bearish chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 310.46–331.92; The largest call open-interest concentration is 350.00; the largest put concentration is 290.00. The most active strike by current volume is 160.00.
Priced range310.46–331.92
Call concentration350.00
Put concentration290.00
Max pain reference350.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 310.46 to 331.92. Max pain at 350.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
310.46321.19 ± 10.73331.92
Confirmation level
A close beyond 331.92 or below 310.46 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 83/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure83 × 42%
+35.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation8 × 22%
+1.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement54 × 26%
+14.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility23 × 10%
+2.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 350.00; the largest put concentration is 290.00. The most active strike by current volume is 160.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
180.00-44.0%
0
1
185.00-42.4%
0
1
195.00-39.3%
0
4
220.00-31.5%
0
2
240.00-25.3%
0
3
250.00-22.2%
0
2
260.00-19.1%
0
6
270.00-15.9%
0
4
280.00-12.8%
0
40
290.00-9.7%
0
5
300.00-6.6%
0
1
310.00-3.5%
1
3
330.002.7%
2
1
340.005.9%
3
18
350.009.0%
9
2
360.0012.1%
2
9
390.0021.4%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.14
21 Aug
21d
0.35
18 Sep
49d
0.64
16 Oct
77d
0.80
20 Nov
112d
0.85
18 Dec
140d
0.90
15 Jan
168d
0.79
19 Mar
231d
1.17
17 Jun
321d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 714 / 714
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $440375 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-83
1W price+0.8%
Call premium2%
Put premium98%
Notional split
C 2% / P 98%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
54/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 48 contracts traded, $294120 estimated gross traded notional, and 67% of visible notional.
$294120
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $100435 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$100435
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $17300 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$17300
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $13660 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$13660
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $6270 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$6270
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close321.19
1W+0.8%
RS-3.5
Fair value+24.3%
Options pressure-83
Speculation8
Volatility23
Trend fit54
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:24
Bearish
Pressure -81
Move 2.5%
30 Jul 10:21
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 2.1%
31 Jul 13:08
Bearish
Pressure -84
Move 8.1%
31 Jul 17:20
Bearish
Pressure -33
Move 6.0%
31 Jul 19:59
Bearish
Pressure -33
Move 5.6%
1 Aug 09:25
Bearish
Pressure -83
Move 3.5%
2 Aug 11:29
Bearish
Pressure -83
Move 3.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike185.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike190.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.14
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.35
Put-call2.50
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts92
Avg IV0.64
Put-call1.00
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.80
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV0.85
Put-call2.50
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.01
Skew-0.03
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.85
Skew0.83
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.04
Put IV1.10
Skew1.05
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV1.32
Skew1.01
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.01
Put IV1.39
Skew1.38
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPEN270115P00230000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike230.00
Volume30
OI-
IV1.41
ContractPEN270617P00270000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike270.00
Volume5
OI15
IV0.07
ContractPEN261218P00220000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike220.00
Volume5
OI13
IV1.30
ContractPEN270115P00220000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike220.00
Volume5
OI13
IV1.40
ContractPEN260918P00330000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike330.00
Volume5
OI5
IV0.65
ContractPEN270115C00320000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike320.00
Volume3
OI14
IV0.20
ContractPEN270319P00380000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike380.00
Volume2
OI24
IV1.90
ContractPEN270115C00330000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike330.00
Volume2
OI18
IV0.01
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.