Ticker Options Intelligence

TCOM options intelligence

Trip.com Group Ltd ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 28 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 30 Jul 2026 20:38 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

TCOM currently carries mixed options pressure with a 28/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 8.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.99

Balanced tape

Trend fit 64

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +2.8%

RS -34.1

Expected move 8.4%
Put-call volume 0.99
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 0.59
Max pain 45.00
Underlying 43.64
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 166

Research Brief

TCOM has a mixed chain read with 28/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 39.99–47.29; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range39.99–47.29
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration40.00
Max pain reference45.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 39.99 to 47.29. Max pain at 45.00 sits inside that range, 3.1% above spot.

Spot Max pain
39.9943.64 ± 3.6547.29
Confirmation level

A close beyond 47.29 or below 39.99 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 28/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 2/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure2 × 42%
+0.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation14 × 22%
+3.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement64 × 26%
+16.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility75 × 10%
+7.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score28.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
62
25.00-42.7%
4
2526
30.00-31.3%
0
8392
35.00-19.8%
23
17206
40.00-8.3%
131
2045
45.003.1%
3436
64
50.0014.6%
3442
2
55.0026.0%
537
0
60.0037.5%
321
0
65.0048.9%
6
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.25× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.59 21 Aug 22d
0.48 18 Sep 50d
0.47 18 Dec 141d
0.45 15 Jan 169d
0.47 19 Mar 232d
0.51 17 Jun 322d
0.48 21 Jan 540d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

35
40
45
50
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
166 / 166
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

61/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.9M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-2
1W price+2.8%
Call premium21%
Put premium79%
Notional split C 21% / P 79% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 64/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 1194 contracts traded, $2.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 68% of visible notional.
$2.7M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 1076 contracts traded, $409608 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$409608
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 2243 contracts traded, $407878 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$407878
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 156 contracts traded, $233393 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$233393
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 92 contracts traded, $106695 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$106695

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close43.64
1W+2.8%
RS-34.1
Fair value-19.2%
Options pressure-2
Speculation14
Volatility75
Trend fit64

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 8.4% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.59 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.99 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:14 Bearish
Pressure -19
Move 7.8%
30 Jul 10:10 Bearish
Pressure -37
Move 8.1%
30 Jul 15:14 Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 8.2%
30 Jul 15:41 Mixed
Pressure -11
Move 8.4%
30 Jul 19:38 Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 8.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike25.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 62
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 500 · OI 2526
Strike35.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 23
Puts · V 16 · OI 8392
Strike40.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 131
Puts · V 43 · OI 17206
Strike45.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 3436
Puts · V 5 · OI 2045
Strike50.00
Calls · V 262 · OI 3442
Puts · V 1 · OI 64
Strike55.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 537
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike60.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 321
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.59
Put-call1.95
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts25
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.57
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts19
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.17
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts45
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.37
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts8
Avg IV0.47
Put-call7.89

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.46
Skew0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.43
Skew-0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.47
Skew-0.01
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.01
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.44
Skew-0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTCOM270319C00050000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI36
IV0.49
ContractTCOM270617P00065000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.49
ContractTCOM270319P00045000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.44
ContractTCOM270617P00060000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.49
ContractTCOM260918P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI5
IV1.10
ContractTCOM270115C00028000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike28.00
Volume-
OI2
IV2.29
ContractTCOM260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.76
ContractTCOM270319P00055000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.41

Research Graph

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