Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
SBU options intelligence
Leverage Shares 2X Long SBUX Daily ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
60
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 20:33 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
SBU currently carries volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 27.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 1.03.
Expected move
27.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
1.03
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.25
Call-side skew
Trend fit
46
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.3%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
27.8%
Put-call volume
0.25
Volume / OI
1.03
Reference IV
1.50
Max pain
18.00
Underlying
19.87
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
20
Research Brief
SBU has a volatility chain read with 60/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 14.34–25.39; The largest call open-interest concentration is 21.00; the largest put concentration is 19.00. The most active strike by current volume is 18.00.
Priced range14.34–25.39
Call concentration21.00
Put concentration19.00
Max pain reference18.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 14.34 to 25.39. Max pain at 18.00 sits inside that range, 9.4% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
14.3419.87 ± 5.5225.39
Confirmation level
A close beyond 25.39 or below 14.34 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 60/100
Pressure is 70/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure70 × 42%
+29.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement46 × 26%
+12.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 21.00; the largest put concentration is 19.00. The most active strike by current volume is 18.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
5.00-74.8%
0
0
10.00-49.7%
0
0
16.00-19.5%
0
0
18.00-9.4%
4
1
19.00-4.4%
2
0
20.000.7%
0
0
21.005.7%
7
0
22.0010.7%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$163Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak18.00+$75
Negative peak15.00-$31
Nearest balance15.88Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
14.00-29.5%
-$9
15.00-24.5%
-$31
18.00-9.4%
+$75
19.00-4.4%
+$43
21.005.7%
+$68
22.0010.7%
+$1
27.0035.9%
+$17
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.50
21 Aug
21d
0.06
18 Sep
49d
0.45
20 Nov
112d
0.00
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
16
18
19
20
21
22
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 20 / 20
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $11,668 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+70
1W price-0.3%
Call premium90%
Put premium10%
Notional split
C 90% / P 10%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
1.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
46/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $6,228 estimated gross traded notional, and 53% of visible notional.
$6,228
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $3,695 estimated gross traded notional, and 32% of visible notional.
$3,695
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 6 contracts traded, $1,155 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$1,155
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $320 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$320
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $180 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$180
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close19.87
1W-0.3%
RS-
Fair value+8.4%
Options pressure70
Speculation40
Volatility96
Trend fit46
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:02
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 2.9%
30 Jul 12:55
Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 27.7%
31 Jul 12:25
Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 27.7%
1 Aug 09:39
Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 27.7%
2 Aug 19:33
Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 27.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike5.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike16.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike18.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike19.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike21.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV1.50
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts1
Avg IV0.06
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.50
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts1
Avg IV0.00
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.06
Put IV1.98
Skew1.91
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.06
Put IV-
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.03
Put IV1.03
Skew1.00
19 Feb 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV-
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSBU260821C00022000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.13
ContractSBU261120P00014000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike14.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.03
ContractSBU260821P00019000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike19.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.98
ContractSBU270219C00010000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractSBU260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI-
IV1.71
ContractSBU261120C00010000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractSBU261120C00035000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.25
ContractSBU261120P00015000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike15.00
Volume6
OI3
IV1.03
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.