Ticker Options Intelligence

MED options intelligence

MEDIFAST INC options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 38 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 00:45 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

MED currently carries bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 9.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.33

Call-side skew

Trend fit 6

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -5.7%

RS -24.0

Expected move 9.3%
Put-call volume 0.33
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.92
Max pain 7.50
Underlying 9.68
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 39

Research Brief

MED has a bullish chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 8.78–10.58; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.

Priced range8.78–10.58
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference7.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 8.78 to 10.58. Max pain at 7.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
8.789.68 ± 0.9010.58
Confirmation level

A close beyond 10.58 or below 8.78 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 38/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 61/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure61 × 42%
+25.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement6 × 26%
+1.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility93 × 10%
+9.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score38.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
7.50-22.5%
600
462
10.003.3%
1490
0
12.5029.1%
51
0
15.0055.0%
15
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.46× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.92 21 Aug 21d
1.19 18 Sep 49d
0.61 20 Nov 112d
0.73 18 Dec 140d
0.63 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
39 / 39
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

84/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $31006 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+61
1W price-5.7%
Call premium47%
Put premium53%
Notional split C 47% / P 53% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 6/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 48 contracts traded, $14800 estimated gross traded notional, and 48% of visible notional.
$14800
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 124 contracts traded, $7920 estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$7920
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $2640 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2640
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 84 contracts traded, $2125 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$2125
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $1505 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$1505

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close9.68
1W-5.7%
RS-24.0
Fair value-63.5%
Options pressure61
Speculation8
Volatility93
Trend fit6

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 9.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.92 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.33 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:43 Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 10.3%
30 Jul 08:38 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.9%
31 Jul 08:09 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 9.8%
31 Jul 23:45 Bullish
Pressure 61
Move 9.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 600
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 62 · OI 1490
Puts · V 3 · OI 462
Strike12.50
Calls · V 20 · OI 51
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 15
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV0.92
Put-call0.04
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV1.19
Put-call0.53
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.61
Put-call0.58
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts8
Avg IV0.73
Put-call0.48
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts4
Avg IV0.63
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.70
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.50
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV1.11
Skew0.62
18 Dec 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV-
Skew-
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMED260821C00007500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI600
IV1.25
ContractMED270319C00007500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI5
IV0.75
ContractMED270319P00010000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.58
ContractMED261218C00017500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI2
IV1.15
ContractMED260918P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI1
IV5.31
ContractMED260821P00012500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI-
IV1.39
ContractMED260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume62
OI1490
IV0.70
ContractMED261218C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike10.00
Volume50
OI630
IV0.50