Ticker Options Intelligence

DBX options intelligence

Dropbox Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 51 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 06:51 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

DBX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 12.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.36

Call-side skew

Trend fit 35

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +11.5%

RS 7.9

Expected move 12.3%
Put-call volume 0.36
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.67
Max pain 29.00
Underlying 29.19
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 414

Research Brief

DBX has a volatility chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 25.59–32.79; The largest call open-interest concentration is 36.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 32.00.

Priced range25.59–32.79
Call concentration36.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference29.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 25.59 to 32.79. Max pain at 29.00 sits inside that range, 0.7% below spot.

Spot Max pain
25.5929.19 ± 3.6032.79
Confirmation level

A close beyond 32.79 or below 25.59 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 51/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 57/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure57 × 42%
+23.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement35 × 26%
+9.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility87 × 10%
+8.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score50.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 36.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 32.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
15.00-48.6%
6
0
19.00-34.9%
2
20
24.00-17.8%
2
14
25.00-14.4%
0
3
26.00-10.9%
1
12
27.00-7.5%
0
0
27.50-5.8%
4
47
28.00-4.1%
22
5
29.00-0.7%
173
66
30.002.8%
182
7
31.006.2%
20
2
32.009.6%
47
22
33.0013.1%
87
7
34.0016.5%
14115
3
35.0019.9%
11
18
36.0023.3%
14152
0
37.0026.8%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.68× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.67 7 Aug 7d
0.45 14 Aug 14d
0.51 21 Aug 21d
0.32 28 Aug 28d
0.55 4 Sep 35d
0.51 11 Sep 42d
0.47 18 Sep 49d
0.39 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

24
25
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
414 / 414
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

92/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $184121 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+57
1W price+11.5%
Call premium84%
Put premium16%
Notional split C 84% / P 16% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 35/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 355 contracts traded, $64032 estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$64032
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 419 contracts traded, $40888 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$40888
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 125 contracts traded, $39488 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$39488
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 181 contracts traded, $22502 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$22502
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 47 contracts traded, $3980 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$3980

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close32.56
1W+11.5%
RS7.9
Fair value+20.5%
Options pressure57
Speculation41
Volatility87
Trend fit35

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 12.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.67 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.36 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:35 Bullish
Pressure 87
Move 3.5%
30 Jul 09:36 Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 3.3%
31 Jul 13:02 Volatility
Pressure 48
Move 5.3%
31 Jul 15:37 Volatility
Pressure 60
Move 10.6%
31 Jul 16:40 Volatility
Pressure 66
Move 11.8%
31 Jul 17:32 Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 13.2%
31 Jul 17:54 Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 13.2%
31 Jul 19:02 Volatility
Pressure 64
Move 12.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike19.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike21.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike23.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.67
Put-call0.31
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.65
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.51
Put-call0.13
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.32
Put-call-
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV0.55
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.96
Put IV0.80
Skew-0.17
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.73
Skew0.15
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.54
Skew0.03
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.11
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.37
Skew-0.09

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractDBX260814C00033500
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike33.50
Volume163
OI89
IV0.58
ContractDBX260807C00032000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike32.00
Volume135
OI47
IV0.67
ContractDBX260807C00034000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike34.00
Volume116
OI14115
IV0.72
ContractDBX260814P00032000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike32.00
Volume111
OI21
IV0.58
ContractDBX260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume81
OI2125
IV0.56
ContractDBX260807C00033000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike33.00
Volume66
OI87
IV0.67
ContractDBX270115C00035000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike35.00
Volume60
OI1014
IV0.41
ContractDBX280121C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike45.00
Volume60
OI578
IV0.42