Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
HUBS options intelligence
HubSpot Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
39
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 17:33 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
HUBS currently carries mixed options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 23.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
23.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.19
Balanced tape
Trend fit
70
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-8.6%
RS -42.6
Expected move
23.5%
Put-call volume
1.19
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.91
Max pain
230.00
Underlying
204.89
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
569
Research Brief
HUBS has a mixed chain read with 39/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 156.84–252.94; The largest call open-interest concentration is 200.00; the largest put concentration is 180.00. The most active strike by current volume is 180.00.
Priced range156.84–252.94
Call concentration200.00
Put concentration180.00
Max pain reference230.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 156.84 to 252.94. Max pain at 230.00 sits inside that range, 12.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
156.84204.89 ± 48.05252.94
Confirmation level
A close beyond 252.94 or below 156.84 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 39/100
Pressure is 12/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure12 × 42%
+5.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation26 × 22%
+5.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement70 × 26%
+18.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 200.00; the largest put concentration is 180.00. The most active strike by current volume is 180.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
165
135.00-34.1%
0
220
155.00-24.3%
4
141
165.00-19.5%
29
192
175.00-14.6%
30
3113
180.00-12.1%
106
33
190.00-7.3%
306
175
195.00-4.8%
23
122
200.00-2.4%
1040
71
210.002.5%
114
232
220.007.4%
148
3042
230.0012.3%
108
110
240.0017.1%
160
58
250.0022.0%
341
70
260.0026.9%
116
0
290.0041.5%
170
0
300.0046.4%
386
0
320.0056.2%
199
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.91
21 Aug
21d
0.83
18 Sep
49d
0.79
18 Dec
140d
0.77
15 Jan
168d
0.75
19 Mar
231d
0.73
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
220
230
240
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 569 / 569
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $20.4M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-12
1W price-8.6%
Call premium32%
Put premium68%
Notional split
C 32% / P 68%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
70/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 684 contracts traded, $10.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 49% of visible notional.
$10.0M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 371 contracts traded, $3.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$3.2M
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 168 contracts traded, $2.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$2.5M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 583 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 75 contracts traded, $652620 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$652620
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close204.89
1W-8.6%
RS-42.6
Fair value-58.7%
Options pressure-12
Speculation26
Volatility96
Trend fit70
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:27
Volatility
Pressure -23
Move 25.6%
30 Jul 10:23
Volatility
Pressure -61
Move 29.7%
30 Jul 14:52
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 22.6%
30 Jul 15:30
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 23.0%
30 Jul 17:12
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 23.4%
30 Jul 17:45
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 23.9%
30 Jul 18:19
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 23.6%
30 Jul 19:35
Mixed
Pressure -10
Move 23.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 11
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 8 · OI 8
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike115.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike120.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 22
Puts · V 4 · OI 6
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 2 · OI 13
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 11
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.91
Put-call3.10
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV0.83
Put-call0.80
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts99
Avg IV0.79
Put-call0.46
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts160
Avg IV0.77
Put-call0.89
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts17
Avg IV0.75
Put-call1.43
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.87
Put IV0.95
Skew0.08
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.82
Put IV0.85
Skew0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.79
Put IV0.79
Skew0.00
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.77
Skew0.00
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.76
Skew-0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractHUBS270319P00220000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike220.00
Volume-
OI35
IV0.74
ContractHUBS260918P00370000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike370.00
Volume-
OI21
IV0.00
ContractHUBS280121P00105000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike105.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.84
ContractHUBS270319P00260000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike260.00
Volume-
OI19
IV0.71
ContractHUBS260918P00410000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike410.00
Volume-
OI12
IV0.00
ContractHUBS261218P00380000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike380.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.00
ContractHUBS261218C00530000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike530.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.12
ContractHUBS261218P00510000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike510.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.00
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.