Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
UDN options intelligence
INVESCO DB US DLR INDEX TR BEARISH FD ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 12:33 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
UDN currently carries bullish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
3.6%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.01
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.6%
RS -8.4
Expected move
3.6%
Put-call volume
0.01
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.15
Max pain
8.00
Underlying
18.12
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
180
Research Brief
UDN has a bullish chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 17.47–18.77; The largest call open-interest concentration is 21.00; the largest put concentration is 8.00. The most active strike by current volume is 8.00.
Priced range17.47–18.77
Call concentration21.00
Put concentration8.00
Max pain reference8.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 17.47 to 18.77. Max pain at 8.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
17.4718.12 ± 0.6518.77
Confirmation level
A close beyond 18.77 or below 17.47 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility25 × 10%
+2.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 21.00; the largest put concentration is 8.00. The most active strike by current volume is 8.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
8.00-55.8%
0
0
9.00-50.3%
0
0
10.00-44.8%
0
0
11.00-39.3%
0
0
12.00-33.8%
0
0
13.00-28.3%
0
0
14.00-22.7%
0
0
15.00-17.2%
0
0
16.00-11.7%
0
0
17.00-6.2%
3
0
18.00-0.7%
10
0
19.004.9%
0
0
20.0010.4%
0
0
21.0015.9%
100
0
22.0021.4%
0
0
26.0043.5%
1
0
27.0049.0%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$2.0MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak19.00+$1.3M
Negative peak17.00-$42
Nearest balance17.00Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
14.00-22.7%
+$0
15.00-17.2%
+$0
16.00-11.7%
+$0
17.00-6.2%
-$42
18.00-0.7%
+$431,612
19.004.9%
+$1.3M
20.0010.4%
+$210,906
21.0015.9%
+$51,959
22.0021.4%
+$10,930
23.0026.9%
+$7
26.0043.5%
+$3
27.0049.0%
+$6
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.15
21 Aug
21d
0.13
18 Sep
49d
0.10
18 Dec
140d
0.11
19 Mar
231d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 180 / 180
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $13,457 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+1.6%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split
C 99% / P 1%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 759 contracts traded, $13,282 estimated gross traded notional, and 99% of visible notional.
$13,282
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $150 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$150
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $22 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$22
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $2 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$2
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close18.12
1W+1.6%
RS-8.4
Fair value+4.8%
Options pressure100
Speculation41
Volatility25
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:18
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 7.2%
30 Jul 13:07
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 2.3%
31 Jul 12:43
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 3.6%
3 Aug 11:33
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 3.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.15
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.13
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.10
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts46
Avg IV0.11
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.11
Put IV0.03
Skew-0.08
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.02
Skew-0.05
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.09
Put IV0.02
Skew-0.07
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.17
Skew0.15
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUDN261218C00019000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike19.00
Volume759
OI3940
IV0.09
ContractUDN270319P00017000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike17.00
Volume10
OI2
IV0.05
ContractUDN260918C00018000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike18.00
Volume1
OI1064
IV0.03
ContractUDN260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume1
OI-
IV0.38
ContractUDN260918C00019000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike19.00
Volume-
OI11274
IV0.07
ContractUDN261218C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI4126
IV0.07
ContractUDN260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI3801
IV0.13
ContractUDN260918C00021000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike21.00
Volume-
OI2702
IV0.19
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.