Ticker Options Intelligence

RL options intelligence

Ralph Lauren Corp Class A options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 47 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 03:03 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

RL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 10.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.39

Call-side skew

Trend fit 48

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -1.8%

RS -0.4

Expected move 10.2%
Put-call volume 0.39
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.48
Max pain 380.00
Underlying 373.58
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 364

Research Brief

RL has a volatility chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 335.53–411.63; The largest call open-interest concentration is 460.00; the largest put concentration is 370.00. The most active strike by current volume is 390.00.

Priced range335.53–411.63
Call concentration460.00
Put concentration370.00
Max pain reference380.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 335.53 to 411.63. Max pain at 380.00 sits inside that range, 1.7% above spot.

Spot Max pain
335.53373.58 ± 38.05411.63
Confirmation level

A close beyond 411.63 or below 335.53 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 47/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 42/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure42 × 42%
+17.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement48 × 26%
+12.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility74 × 10%
+7.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score46.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 460.00; the largest put concentration is 370.00. The most active strike by current volume is 390.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
33
300.00-19.7%
0
13
320.00-14.3%
1
18
330.00-11.7%
0
8
340.00-9.0%
0
54
350.00-6.3%
0
7
360.00-3.6%
0
281
370.00-1.0%
6
23
380.001.7%
20
3
390.004.4%
13
4
400.007.1%
19
2
410.009.7%
20
0
420.0012.4%
14
0
430.0015.1%
17
2
440.0017.8%
8
0
450.0020.5%
8
0
460.0023.1%
77
0
470.0025.8%
10
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.31× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.48 21 Aug 22d
0.39 18 Sep 50d
0.37 16 Oct 78d
0.38 20 Nov 113d
0.36 15 Jan 169d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
364 / 364
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

83/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $710698 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+42
1W price-1.8%
Call premium90%
Put premium10%
Notional split C 90% / P 10% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 48/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 24 contracts traded, $373030 estimated gross traded notional, and 52% of visible notional.
$373030
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $93310 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$93310
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 51 contracts traded, $60765 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$60765
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 19 contracts traded, $40795 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$40795
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $35685 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$35685

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close373.58
1W-1.8%
RS-0.4
Fair value+55.9%
Options pressure42
Speculation41
Volatility74
Trend fit48

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.2% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.48 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.39 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:18 Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 9.9%
30 Jul 10:13 Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 9.7%
31 Jul 02:03 Volatility
Pressure 42
Move 10.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike270.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike280.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike290.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike300.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 8 · OI 33
Strike310.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike320.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike330.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 18
Strike340.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 8

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.29
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.74
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.37
Put-call4.00
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.29
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts88
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.06

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.49
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.40
Skew0.04
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.38
Skew0.05
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.39
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.39
Skew0.05

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractRL260821C00390000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike390.00
Volume28
OI13
IV0.46
ContractRL260821C00380000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike380.00
Volume18
OI20
IV0.47
ContractRL270115C00230000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike230.00
Volume18
OI3
IV0.34
ContractRL260821P00350000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike350.00
Volume11
OI54
IV0.50
ContractRL260821C00400000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike400.00
Volume10
OI19
IV0.45
ContractRL260918C00320000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike320.00
Volume10
OI10
IV0.42
ContractRL260821C00440000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike440.00
Volume10
OI8
IV0.42
ContractRL260821P00300000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike300.00
Volume8
OI33
IV0.35