Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CSTM options intelligence
Constellium Nv options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 09:09 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CSTM currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.
Expected move
10.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.06
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.39
Call-side skew
Trend fit
44
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-4.4%
RS 12.3
Expected move
10.5%
Put-call volume
0.39
Volume / OI
0.06
Reference IV
0.56
Max pain
29.00
Underlying
27.78
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
194
Research Brief
CSTM has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 24.85–30.71; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 33.00. The most active strike by current volume is 26.00.
Priced range24.85–30.71
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration33.00
Max pain reference29.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 24.85 to 30.71. Max pain at 29.00 sits inside that range, 4.4% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
24.8527.78 ± 2.9330.71
Confirmation level
A close beyond 30.71 or below 24.85 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 52/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure52 × 42%
+21.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement44 × 26%
+11.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility79 × 10%
+7.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 33.00. The most active strike by current volume is 26.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
20.00-28.0%
50
129
23.00-17.2%
19
60
25.00-10.0%
554
551
26.00-6.4%
931
410
27.00-2.8%
72
102
28.000.8%
133
547
29.004.4%
178
509
30.008.0%
591
196
31.0011.6%
320
102
32.0015.2%
492
621
33.0018.8%
465
4
34.0022.4%
422
4
35.0026.0%
992
1
36.0029.6%
221
0
37.0033.2%
229
0
38.0036.8%
141
0
40.0044.0%
262
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.56
21 Aug
21d
0.54
18 Sep
49d
0.58
20 Nov
112d
0.50
15 Jan
168d
0.58
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 194 / 194
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $552122 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+52
1W price-4.4%
Call premium70%
Put premium30%
Notional split
C 70% / P 30%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.06
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
44/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 128 contracts traded, $162330 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$162330
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 958 contracts traded, $134136 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$134136
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 175 contracts traded, $96735 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$96735
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 145 contracts traded, $69628 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$69628
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 261 contracts traded, $47530 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$47530
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close27.78
1W-4.4%
RS12.3
Fair value+53.7%
Options pressure52
Speculation41
Volatility79
Trend fit44
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:40
Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 10.8%
30 Jul 10:38
Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 12.0%
31 Jul 06:28
Volatility
Pressure 51
Move 10.2%
2 Aug 05:00
Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 10.5%
2 Aug 08:09
Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 10.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 6
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 6
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 6
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike16.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 1
Puts · V 6 · OI 2
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 13
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.37
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.28
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.44
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts61
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.30
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts15
Avg IV0.58
Put-call1.69
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.59
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.53
Skew-0.02
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.60
Put IV0.55
Skew-0.05
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.03
Skew-0.54
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.60
Put IV0.55
Skew-0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCSTM261120P00026000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike26.00
Volume-
OI32
IV0.55
ContractCSTM270219C00031000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike31.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.59
ContractCSTM270219C00024000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike24.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.64
ContractCSTM260918P00020000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.87
ContractCSTM270219P00028000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike28.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.53
ContractCSTM260821P00036000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike36.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.00
ContractCSTM270115P00019000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike19.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.73
ContractCSTM261120P00055000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.52
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.