Ticker Options Intelligence

PVLA options intelligence

Palvella Therapeutics, Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 45 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 09:26 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

PVLA currently carries volatility options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 12.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 5.33

Put-side skew

Trend fit 38

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.7%

RS 29.5

Expected move 12.4%
Put-call volume 5.33
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.66
Max pain 130.00
Underlying 139.04
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 266

Research Brief

PVLA has a volatility chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 121.84–156.24; The largest call open-interest concentration is 165.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 135.00.

Priced range121.84–156.24
Call concentration165.00
Put concentration100.00
Max pain reference130.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 121.84 to 156.24. Max pain at 130.00 sits inside that range, 6.5% below spot.

Spot Max pain
121.84139.04 ± 17.20156.24
Confirmation level

A close beyond 156.24 or below 121.84 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 45/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 59/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure59 × 42%
+24.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation11 × 22%
+2.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement38 × 26%
+9.8

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility86 × 10%
+8.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score45.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 165.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 135.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
25
65.00-53.3%
0
54
100.00-28.1%
4
1
110.00-20.9%
20
30
115.00-17.3%
8
28
120.00-13.7%
1
22
125.00-10.1%
2
26
130.00-6.5%
32
11
135.00-2.9%
25
11
140.000.7%
72
13
145.004.3%
18
35
150.007.9%
58
0
155.0011.5%
22
15
160.0015.1%
18
1
165.0018.7%
1002
0
180.0029.5%
30
0
200.0043.8%
250
0
220.0058.2%
253
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

0.99× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.66 21 Aug 21d
0.64 18 Sep 49d
0.66 20 Nov 112d
0.66 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
266 / 266
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

91/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $14604 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-59
1W price+0.7%
Call premium30%
Put premium70%
Notional split C 30% / P 70% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 38/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 13 Aug Matched earnings event is 11 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 15 contracts traded, $9375 estimated gross traded notional, and 64% of visible notional.
$9375
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $4280 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$4280
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $850 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$850
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $99 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$99

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close139.04
1W+0.7%
RS29.5
Fair value+100.1%
Options pressure-59
Speculation11
Volatility86
Trend fit38

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 12.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.66 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 5.33 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:05 Volatility
Pressure -90
Move 14.5%
30 Jul 10:53 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 14.7%
31 Jul 10:35 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 15.6%
1 Aug 03:42 Volatility
Pressure -59
Move 12.5%
2 Aug 08:26 Volatility
Pressure -59
Move 12.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 25
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 13

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.66
Put-call16.00
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.64
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.66
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts68
Avg IV0.66
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.58
Skew-0.08
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.63
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.66
Skew0.03
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.64
Put IV0.67
Skew0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPVLA260821P00135000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike135.00
Volume15
OI11
IV0.63
ContractPVLA261120C00140000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike140.00
Volume2
OI10
IV0.69
ContractPVLA260821C00180000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike180.00
Volume1
OI30
IV0.38
ContractPVLA260821P00140000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike140.00
Volume1
OI11
IV0.61
ContractPVLA260821C00165000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike165.00
Volume-
OI1002
IV0.26
ContractPVLA261120C00150000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike150.00
Volume-
OI308
IV0.65
ContractPVLA260821C00220000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike220.00
Volume-
OI253
IV0.63
ContractPVLA260821C00200000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike200.00
Volume-
OI250
IV0.51