Ticker Options Intelligence

AAON options intelligence

AAON Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 47 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 19:05 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

AAON currently carries volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 21.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.15.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 21.7%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.15

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.34

Put-side skew

Trend fit 96

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -13.3%

RS -16.2

Expected move 21.7%
Put-call volume 1.34
Volume / OI 0.15
Reference IV 1.01
Max pain 110.00
Underlying 102.67
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 181

Research Brief

AAON has a volatility chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 80.35–124.99; The largest call open-interest concentration is 135.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 100.00.

Priced range80.35–124.99
Call concentration135.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference110.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 80.35 to 124.99. Max pain at 110.00 sits inside that range, 7.1% above spot.

Spot Max pain
80.35102.67 ± 22.32124.99
Confirmation level

A close beyond 124.99 or below 80.35 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 47/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 6/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure6 × 42%
+2.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation44 × 22%
+9.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement96 × 26%
+25.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score46.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 135.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 100.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
17
65.00-36.7%
0
44
75.00-27.0%
0
126
80.00-22.1%
0
30
85.00-17.2%
0
21
90.00-12.3%
0
22
95.00-7.5%
5
18
100.00-2.6%
15
5
105.002.3%
12
8
110.007.1%
74
3
115.0012.0%
4
2
120.0016.9%
30
1
125.0021.7%
7
0
130.0026.6%
69
0
135.0031.5%
747
0
140.0036.4%
57
71
145.0041.2%
145
0
150.0046.1%
7
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.20× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.01 21 Aug 21d
0.84 18 Sep 49d
0.92 16 Oct 77d
1.19 18 Dec 140d
0.79 15 Jan 168d
0.84 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A99/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
181 / 181
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

85/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $802654 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-6
1W price-13.3%
Call premium35%
Put premium65%
Notional split C 35% / P 65% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.15 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 96/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 10 Aug Matched earnings event is 9 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · OTM
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 137 contracts traded, $171845 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$171845
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 35 contracts traded, $133955 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$133955
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 128 contracts traded, $130964 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$130964
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 64 contracts traded, $84878 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$84878
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $79830 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$79830

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close89.06
1W-13.3%
RS-16.2
Fair value-1.6%
Options pressure-6
Speculation44
Volatility96
Trend fit96

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 21.7% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.34 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.15 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:26 Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 22.1%
30 Jul 10:22 Volatility
Pressure -28
Move 24.5%
30 Jul 13:40 Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 26.8%
31 Jul 13:32 Volatility
Pressure -36
Move 22.3%
31 Jul 14:23 Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 21.5%
31 Jul 15:40 Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 21.7%
31 Jul 16:48 Volatility
Pressure -8
Move 21.7%
31 Jul 18:05 Volatility
Pressure -6
Move 21.7%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 17
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 4
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 20 · OI 44
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 126
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 30
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 21
Strike95.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 5
Puts · V 1 · OI 22
Strike100.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 15
Puts · V 19 · OI 18

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV1.01
Put-call1.56
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts4
Avg IV0.84
Put-call0.17
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts47
Avg IV0.92
Put-call1.50
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts29
Avg IV1.19
Put-call1.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts39
Avg IV0.79
Put-call1.42

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.97
Put IV1.06
Skew0.09
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.84
Put IV0.84
Skew0.00
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.77
Skew0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.76
Put IV0.72
Skew-0.03
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.06
Put IV0.31
Skew0.24

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAAON261218P00050000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.86
ContractAAON270319P00135000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike135.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.29
ContractAAON270319C00060000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.79
ContractAAON270319C00160000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike160.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.92
ContractAAON270319C00115000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike115.00
Volume-
OI6
IV1.68
ContractAAON270115C00170000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike170.00
Volume-
OI5
IV1.35
ContractAAON261016C00160000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike160.00
Volume-
OI5
IV1.65
ContractAAON270115C00075000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike75.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.78