Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
LI options intelligence
Li Auto Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
34
Market data through 6 Aug 2026
Checked 7 Aug 2026 04:03 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
LI currently carries bullish options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
5.5%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.65
Call-side skew
Trend fit
40
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+12.5%
RS -32.9
Expected move
5.5%
Put-call volume
0.65
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.66
Max pain
13.00
Underlying
13.63
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
620
Research Brief
LI has a bullish chain read with 34/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.88–14.38; The largest call open-interest concentration is 13.50; the largest put concentration is 11.50. The most active strike by current volume is 13.00.
Priced range12.88–14.38
Call concentration13.50
Put concentration11.50
Max pain reference13.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 12.88 to 14.38. Max pain at 13.00 sits inside that range, 4.6% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
12.8813.63 ± 0.7514.38
Confirmation level
A close beyond 14.38 or below 12.88 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 34/100
Pressure is 23/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure23 × 42%
+9.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation35 × 22%
+7.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement40 × 26%
+10.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility68 × 10%
+6.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 13.50; the largest put concentration is 11.50. The most active strike by current volume is 13.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
7.00-48.6%
14
2
8.50-37.6%
8
1
9.00-34.0%
6
65
9.50-30.3%
11
19
10.00-26.6%
6
501
11.00-19.3%
33
952
11.50-15.6%
15
454
12.00-12.0%
58
288
12.50-8.3%
114
752
13.00-4.6%
576
28
13.50-1.0%
1990
50
14.002.7%
644
5
14.506.4%
630
20
15.0010.1%
64
3
15.5013.7%
17
0
16.5021.1%
16
9
17.5028.4%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$112,685Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak13.00+$350,329
Negative peak12.00-$491,272
Nearest balance12.55Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
8.50-37.6%
+$75
9.00-34.0%
-$916
9.50-30.3%
+$285
10.00-26.6%
-$172,568
10.50-23.0%
-$304
11.00-19.3%
-$251,251
11.50-15.6%
-$21,557
12.00-12.0%
-$491,272
12.50-8.3%
-$36,085
13.00-4.6%
+$350,329
13.50-1.0%
+$104,003
14.002.7%
+$108,514
14.506.4%
+$20,193
15.0010.1%
+$30,947
15.5013.7%
+$984
16.0017.4%
+$21,395
16.5021.1%
+$96
17.0024.7%
-$10,144
17.5028.4%
-$62
18.0032.1%
+$17,157
19.0039.4%
+$12,088
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.66
7 Aug
1d
0.80
14 Aug
8d
0.58
21 Aug
15d
0.64
28 Aug
22d
0.51
4 Sep
29d
0.41
11 Sep
36d
0.48
18 Sep
43d
0.23
25 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
11
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move12.5%
30 Jul
Bullish · 37
12.5% through expiry
3.6% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 6 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 620 / 620
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $177,704 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+23
1W price+12.5%
Call premium49%
Put premium51%
Notional split
C 49% / P 51%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
40/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
27 Aug
Matched earnings event is 20 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 222 contracts traded, $30,436 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$30,436
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 104 contracts traded, $19,322 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$19,322
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 381 contracts traded, $19,298 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$19,298
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 90 contracts traded, $18,588 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$18,588
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 42 contracts traded, $18,016 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$18,016
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
7 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 7 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close13.63
1W+12.5%
RS-32.9
Fair value-45.1%
Options pressure23
Speculation35
Volatility68
Trend fit40
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 7/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 7/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 7/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 7/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 7/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 7/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 7/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 7/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:22
Volatility
Pressure 75
Move 10.7%
30 Jul 10:16
Volatility
Pressure 74
Move 14.1%
31 Jul 10:10
Bullish
Pressure 43
Move 3.6%
31 Jul 13:35
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 12.4%
3 Aug 05:25
Bullish
Pressure 69
Move 5.4%
4 Aug 10:11
Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 5.1%
4 Aug 15:24
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 6.3%
5 Aug 00:14
Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 6.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike7.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike9.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike9.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 65
Strike10.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 19
Strike10.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.66
Put-call0.73
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.80
Put-call0.91
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.58
Put-call3.31
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.64
Put-call0.74
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.51
Put-call4.71
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.04
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.58
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.27
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.23
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.57
Put IV0.52
Skew-0.05
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.86
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.41
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractLI260918C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume183
OI2397
IV0.63
ContractLI260814P00012500
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume175
OI84
IV0.45
ContractLI270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume147
OI6351
IV0.56
ContractLI260918P00014000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike14.00
Volume102
OI1205
IV0.56
ContractLI260918C00018000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike18.00
Volume97
OI728
IV0.70
ContractLI270115P00012000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.00
Volume67
OI193
IV0.46
ContractLI260918P00013000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike13.00
Volume64
OI3107
IV0.54
ContractLI260814C00012500
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume63
OI66
IV0.15
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.