Ticker Options Intelligence

BURL options intelligence

Burlington Stores Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 59 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:06 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

BURL currently carries bearish options pressure with a 59/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.14.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 6.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.14

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 9.17

Put-side skew

Trend fit 13

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +5.3%

RS 12.7

Expected move 6.5%
Put-call volume 9.17
Volume / OI 0.14
Reference IV 0.64
Max pain 320.00
Underlying 349.97
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 1438

Research Brief

BURL has a bearish chain read with 59/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 327.28–372.66; The largest call open-interest concentration is 250.00; the largest put concentration is 240.00. The most active strike by current volume is 377.50.

Priced range327.28–372.66
Call concentration250.00
Put concentration240.00
Max pain reference320.00
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 327.28 to 372.66. Max pain at 320.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
327.28349.97 ± 22.69372.66
Confirmation level

A close beyond 372.66 or below 327.28 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 59/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 92/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure92 × 42%
+38.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation43 × 22%
+9.5

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement13 × 26%
+3.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility71 × 10%
+7.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score58.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 250.00; the largest put concentration is 240.00. The most active strike by current volume is 377.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
17
180.00-48.6%
0
22
185.00-47.1%
0
100
240.00-31.4%
1
0
250.00-28.6%
158
51
305.00-12.8%
0
25
315.00-10.0%
3
45
320.00-8.6%
1
54
322.50-7.8%
0
11
360.002.9%
8
2
365.004.3%
22
1
370.005.7%
11
0
372.506.4%
29
2
375.007.2%
119
2
377.507.9%
15
0
385.0010.0%
41
1
390.0011.4%
48
1
395.0012.9%
30
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.50× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.64 31 Jul 1d
0.43 7 Aug 8d
0.38 14 Aug 15d
0.38 21 Aug 22d
0.47 28 Aug 29d
0.47 4 Sep 36d
0.44 11 Sep 43d
0.45 18 Sep 50d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

280
290
300
308
313
318
325
330
335
340
345
350
355
360
365
373
378
385
395
405
415
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
1438 / 1438
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

83/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow against rising price

Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.1M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-92
1W price+5.3%
Call premium76%
Put premium24%
Notional split C 76% / P 24% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.14 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 13/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 74 contracts traded, $1.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 66% of visible notional.
$1.4M
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 212 contracts traded, $248710 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$248710
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 1612 contracts traded, $136976 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$136976
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 228 contracts traded, $58725 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$58725
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $56040 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$56040

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close368.48
1W+5.3%
RS12.7
Fair value+48.0%
Options pressure-92
Speculation43
Volatility71
Trend fit13

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.5% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.64 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 9.17 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.14 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:19 Bearish
Pressure -63
Move 6.2%
30 Jul 10:14 Bearish
Pressure -97
Move 2.6%
31 Jul 10:06 Bearish
Pressure -92
Move 6.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 15
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 14
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 9 · OI 17
Strike185.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 7 · OI 22
Strike190.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 10
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 14
Strike200.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 14
Strike205.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 13

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts146
Avg IV0.64
Put-call0.80
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts144
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.35
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts144
Avg IV0.38
Put-call11.10
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts144
Avg IV0.38
Put-call8.00
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts120
Avg IV0.47
Put-call1.33

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.48
Skew-0.13
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.42
Skew0.03
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.38
Skew0.04
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.38
Skew0.03
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.02

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractBURL260918P00270000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike270.00
Volume1610
OI4152
IV0.49
ContractBURL260814P00375000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike375.00
Volume200
OI600
IV0.35
ContractBURL270115P00240000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike240.00
Volume197
OI8
IV0.45
ContractBURL260731C00377500
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike377.50
Volume60
OI15
IV0.50
ContractBURL260821P00347500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike347.50
Volume34
OI1
IV0.38
ContractBURL270115P00200000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike200.00
Volume31
OI13
IV0.50
ContractBURL260731C00385000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike385.00
Volume30
OI41
IV0.78
ContractBURL270115C00280000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike280.00
Volume25
OI38
IV0.45