Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
EXE options intelligence
Expand Energy Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
39
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 00:51 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
EXE currently carries bearish options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
5.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.46
Put-side skew
Trend fit
87
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+2.7%
RS -15.3
Expected move
5.7%
Put-call volume
1.46
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.28
Max pain
90.00
Underlying
94.03
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
266
Research Brief
EXE has a bearish chain read with 39/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 88.63–99.43; The largest call open-interest concentration is 95.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00.
Priced range88.63–99.43
Call concentration95.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference90.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 88.63 to 99.43. Max pain at 90.00 sits inside that range, 4.3% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
88.6394.03 ± 5.4099.43
Confirmation level
A close beyond 99.43 or below 88.63 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 39/100
Pressure is 25/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure25 × 42%
+10.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation9 × 22%
+2.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement87 × 26%
+22.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility43 × 10%
+4.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 95.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
45.00-52.1%
0
0
50.00-46.8%
0
5
55.00-41.5%
0
0
60.00-36.2%
0
0
65.00-30.9%
0
3
70.00-25.6%
10
123
75.00-20.2%
2
43625
80.00-14.9%
16
2752
85.00-9.6%
572
2662
90.00-4.3%
2123
351
95.001.0%
4069
55
100.006.3%
2088
21
105.0011.7%
235
0
110.0017.0%
1136
0
115.0022.3%
1
0
120.0027.6%
1
0
125.0032.9%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.28
21 Aug
21d
0.30
18 Sep
49d
0.31
16 Oct
77d
0.31
15 Jan
168d
0.32
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 266 / 266
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.2M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-25
1W price+2.7%
Call premium80%
Put premium20%
Notional split
C 80% / P 20%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
87/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 1 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 361 contracts traded, $669690 estimated gross traded notional, and 57% of visible notional.
$669690
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 270 contracts traded, $141532 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$141532
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 277 contracts traded, $87435 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$87435
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1402 contracts traded, $81582 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$81582
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 53 contracts traded, $39465 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$39465
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close94.03
1W+2.7%
RS-15.3
Fair value+3.0%
Options pressure-25
Speculation9
Volatility43
Trend fit87
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:17
Bearish
Pressure -77
Move 7.0%
30 Jul 01:02
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 6.8%
30 Jul 22:38
Bearish
Pressure -79
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 13:14
Bearish
Pressure -88
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 13:39
Bearish
Pressure -81
Move 5.6%
31 Jul 14:30
Bearish
Pressure -43
Move 6.3%
31 Jul 15:36
Bearish
Pressure -52
Move 6.2%
1 Aug 01:48
Bearish
Pressure -25
Move 7.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 123
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 16
Puts · V 1109 · OI 43625
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.28
Put-call3.56
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.87
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.84
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts74
Avg IV0.31
Put-call2.99
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts56
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.04
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.31
Skew0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.30
Skew0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.32
Skew0.02
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.33
Skew0.03
21 Jan 2028Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.36
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractEXE260821P00080000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume1109
OI43625
IV0.53
ContractEXE280121C00085000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike85.00
Volume320
OI286
IV0.27
ContractEXE260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume251
OI2088
IV0.28
ContractEXE260821P00090000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume200
OI2662
IV0.31
ContractEXE280121C00135000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike135.00
Volume195
OI565
IV0.32
ContractEXE270115P00082500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike82.50
Volume173
OI265
IV0.33
ContractEXE260821P00085000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike85.00
Volume93
OI2752
IV0.30
ContractEXE260821C00105000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume91
OI235
IV0.30
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.