Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 13.8% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 13.8%. 24h move -19.8 pts. 7d move -19.8 pts. Data quality 31/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 13.9%
Signal Probability Fade
Score 49
Freshness 3m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 88 Liquidity 1.6K Spread 0.2 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality31.1
Momentum81.9
Urgency25.0
7d Move-19.8 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 13.8%. 24h move -19.8 pts. 7d move -19.8 pts. Data quality 31/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

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