Polymarket · Energy

Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Energy expectations are falling at 12.5% on a moderate-quality market. Energy expectation is steady at 12.5%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 42/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 12.5%
Signal Watch
Score 24
Freshness 2m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 911 Liquidity 14.4K Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality41.8
Momentum2.9
Urgency25.0
7d Move-0.5 pts

Energy expectation is steady at 12.5%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 42/100.

Same theme
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 35.5% · Probability Surge · score 68 Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? 5.7% · Probability Fade · score 65 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? 80.5% · Probability Surge · score 64 Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? 42.5% · Probability Surge · score 56 Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? 41.5% · Probability Fade · score 56 Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026? 32.0% · Probability Surge · score 54