Polymarket · Energy

US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?

Energy expectations are rising at 74.0% on a moderate-quality market. Energy expectation is steady at 74.0%. 24h move +0.5 pts. 7d move +0.5 pts. Data quality 42/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 74.0%
Signal Watch
Score 24
Freshness 3m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 911 Liquidity 18.9K Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality42.4
Momentum2.9
Urgency25.0
7d Move0.5 pts

Energy expectation is steady at 74.0%. 24h move +0.5 pts. 7d move +0.5 pts. Data quality 42/100.

Same theme
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? 86.5% · Probability Surge · score 71 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? 66.0% · Probability Surge · score 58 Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? 38.5% · Probability Fade · score 58 Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026? 58.0% · Probability Surge · score 58 Saman Ghoddoos: 2+ goals 24.0% · Probability Fade · score 57 Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June? 8.5% · Probability Fade · score 47