Polymarket · Geopolitics

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Geopolitics expectations are steady at 14.0% on a moderate-quality market. Geopolitics expectation is steady at 14.0%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 47/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 14.0%
Signal Watch
Score 25
Freshness 3m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 8.6K Liquidity 12.5K Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality46.8
Momentum0.0
Urgency25.0
7d Move0.0 pts

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 14.0%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 47/100.

Same theme
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? 63.0% · Probability Surge · score 55 Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 91.5% · High Conviction · score 41 Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? 2.0% · Watch · score 39 Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? 66.5% · Watch · score 38 NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? 2.0% · Watch · score 37 Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? 98.8% · High Conviction · score 37