Kalshi · Geopolitics

yes Ukraine,yes Italy,yes Morocco

Geopolitics expectations are steady at 1.6% on a thin market. Geopolitics expectation is steady at 1.6%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 22/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 1.6%
Signal Watch
Score 19
Freshness 2m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 232 Liquidity 0 Spread 2.3 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality21.8
Momentum0.0
Urgency49.0
7d Move0.0 pts

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 1.6%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 22/100.

Same theme
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? 63.0% · Probability Surge · score 55 Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? 66.5% · Probability Surge · score 39 Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? 2.0% · Watch · score 39 Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 91.5% · High Conviction · score 38 Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? 98.8% · High Conviction · score 36 Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? 11.0% · Watch · score 36