Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?

Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 74.6% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 74.6%. 24h move -1.5 pts. 7d move -1.5 pts. Data quality 41/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 74.7%
Signal Watch
Score 27
Freshness 1m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 9.5K Liquidity 911 Spread 0.3 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality40.6
Momentum13.5
Urgency25.0
7d Move-1.5 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 74.6%. 24h move -1.5 pts. 7d move -1.5 pts. Data quality 41/100.

Same theme
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? 87.5% · Probability Surge · score 56 Will the Republican Party win the NV-03 House seat? 20.0% · Probability Fade · score 55 Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? 27.5% · Probability Fade · score 54 Will the Labour Party win fewer than 30 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legis… 24.0% · Probability Fade · score 54 Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? 62.0% · Probability Fade · score 50 Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? 43.5% · Probability Fade · score 48