Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will the Labour Party win fewer than 30 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 32.0% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 32.0%. 24h move -9.5 pts. 7d move -9.5 pts. Data quality 25/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 32.0%
Signal Probability Fade
Score 46
Freshness 39s
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 98 Liquidity 112 Spread 0.4 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality25.0
Momentum80.1
Urgency25.0
7d Move-9.5 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 32.0%. 24h move -9.5 pts. 7d move -9.5 pts. Data quality 25/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

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