GUI GER Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Diageo plc · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

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Latest close 19.16 EUR
4.6% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 6.4% above the Trend Line and sits at 43.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.6%, after a 7.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 46/100.

Setup score 48 out of 100
Latest Close 19.16 EUR 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 4.6% latest completed week
4W Return 7.1% short-term follow-through
12W Return 7.1% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 0.0% 0 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 2.1x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Next-week expectancy is negative at 43.30% based on similar historical setup states.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 4.6% Latest completed week; four-week move 7.1%. Indicator stack 0/75 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 43.30% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 46/100 17 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is 6.4% above the Trend Line and sits at 43.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.6%, after a 7.1% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 2.1x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.3412-week average 0.20

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.34Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 7.1% over four weeks, 7.1% over 12 weeks, and -5.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W4.6%
4W7.1%
12W7.1%
26W0.2%
52W-5.4%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year0
Trend breadth0.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.15Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change55.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-4.51Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change64.3%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 91% Model confidence 74%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength31/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 70; rank 1 is best.
Value39/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 62; rank 1 is best.
Quality70/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 31; rank 1 is best.
Momentum23/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 78; rank 1 is best.
Growth10/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 91; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework55/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
17.3x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
2.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
10.1x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
4.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
60.1%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
21.4%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
13.3%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
9.9%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-0.1%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-39.2%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
3.5%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
4/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
4.0%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
4.0%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
3.4x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment46/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 17 relevant articles.

2 positive · 12 neutral · 3 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-19.9%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher13 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+6.2%Week of 17 Apr.
Worst week-11.0%Week of 27 Feb.
Latest week+4.6%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains5
Modest gains8
Flat weeks1
Modest losses7
Sharp losses5
Recent vol3.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split24/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.2% / -3.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape41/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 41/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis30/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.34; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 43.30%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 43.30% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors40/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 88; Small Cap Core rank 63 SVQF55/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 166.5 of 372 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment46/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 17 relevant articles.

Diageo Shares Slide as Deutsche Bank Downgrades Ahead of Results Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202619.16 EUR4.6%18.02 EUR25.36 EUR1.15-4.51354.1KOff
24 Jul 202618.32 EUR-1.1%17.99 EUR25.46 EUR1.00-7.08186.3KOff
17 Jul 202618.51 EUR3.4%17.98 EUR25.58 EUR0.96-5.48212.6KOff
10 Jul 202617.89 EUR-0.0%17.99 EUR25.70 EUR0.80-9.80144.2KOff
3 Jul 202617.90 EUR-2.0%18.02 EUR25.82 EUR0.74-12.62209.6KOff
26 Jun 202618.27 EUR3.1%18.06 EUR25.93 EUR0.59-7.3034.4KOff
19 Jun 202617.73 EUR0.6%18.10 EUR26.05 EUR0.38-11.478.9KOff
12 Jun 202617.62 EUR1.7%18.17 EUR26.17 EUR0.31-11.1714.1KOff
5 Jun 202617.32 EUR-2.5%18.26 EUR26.29 EUR0.09-13.6074.1KOff
29 May 202617.76 EUR-4.2%18.33 EUR26.41 EUR-0.01-13.08180.1KOff
22 May 202618.54 EUR5.5%18.39 EUR26.52 EUR-0.13-9.03276.1KOff
15 May 202617.57 EUR-1.8%18.46 EUR26.64 EUR-0.35-10.93108.6KOff
8 May 202617.90 EUR5.3%18.56 EUR26.78 EUR-0.40-11.34352.0KOff
1 May 202617.00 EUR0.5%18.63 EUR26.90 EUR-0.63-16.2664.9KOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.