AFL NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Aflac Incorporated · Financial Services · Insurance - Life

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Latest close 127.5 USD
1.5% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 11.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 92.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.5%, after a 5.5% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 41/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 53/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high; volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 3d.

Setup score 74 out of 100
Latest Close 127.5 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 1.5% latest completed week
4W Return 5.5% short-term follow-through
12W Return 13.3% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 78.8% 41 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 16-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 14 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 1.5% Latest completed week; four-week move 5.5%. Indicator stack 88/80 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 56.50% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Mixed 41/100 conviction; expected move 2.0%. News sentiment 53/100 52 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 3d Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 11.5% above the Trend Line and sits at 92.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.5%, after a 5.5% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.9212-week average 0.72

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership5/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.92Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers1414 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 14 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 5.5% over four weeks, 13.3% over 12 weeks, and 32.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 16 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W1.5%
4W5.5%
12W13.3%
26W16.1%
52W32.7%
Active trend streak16 weeks
Active weeks in one year41
Trend breadth78.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.58Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change18.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership5.12Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change1360.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength70/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 31; rank 1 is best.
Value66/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 35; rank 1 is best.
Quality33/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 68; rank 1 is best.
Momentum72/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 29; rank 1 is best.
Growth27/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 74; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework62/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
13.8x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
3.5x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
9.9x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
4.4%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
47.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
31.3%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
16.1%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
14.6%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
6.3%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
29.0%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
19.9%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
1.9%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
5.7%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
7.6%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.3x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

AFL shows mixed options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.28, expected move of 2.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction41/100
Expected move2.0%
Put/call volume1.28
Pressure-6
Speculation38
Volatility37
Trend agreement99
Open options detail
Insider activity1 / 19

1 acquisitions and 19 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 52 relevant articles.

11 positive · 37 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move2.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-2.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher16 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+5.6%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-4.6%Week of 29 May.
Latest week+1.5%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains3
Modest gains13
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses1
Recent vol2.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.0% / -1.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape75/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 75/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis71/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 5/12.

Activity pressure 0.92; 14 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 56.50%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.50% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors59/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 11 SVQF62/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 380.5 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options61/100

AFL shows mixed options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.28, expected move of 2.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 2.0% Sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 52 relevant articles.

Aflac Incorporated $AFL Shares Sold by Family Manage LLC Insiders1 / 19

1 acquisitions and 19 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings3d

Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow1 items

1 recent research articles and 0 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026127.5 USD1.5%114.3 USD97.84 USD1.585.129.4MOn
24 Jul 2026125.6 USD0.7%113.7 USD97.49 USD1.474.888.5MOn
17 Jul 2026124.7 USD2.3%113.1 USD97.12 USD1.523.6511.9MOn
10 Jul 2026121.9 USD0.9%112.6 USD96.75 USD1.34-0.167.8MOn
3 Jul 2026120.9 USD0.6%112.2 USD96.39 USD1.330.357.7MOn
26 Jun 2026120.2 USD4.1%111.8 USD96.04 USD1.351.8715.1MOn
19 Jun 2026115.5 USD-2.0%111.4 USD95.68 USD1.02-4.4815.9MOn
12 Jun 2026117.8 USD-0.4%111.2 USD95.35 USD1.02-1.8513.1MOn
5 Jun 2026118.2 USD5.2%111.0 USD95.01 USD0.78-1.0513.3MOn
29 May 2026112.4 USD-4.6%110.8 USD94.67 USD0.47-8.3914.8MOn
22 May 2026117.9 USD1.4%110.6 USD94.35 USD0.48-2.8511.0MOn
15 May 2026116.2 USD3.3%110.2 USD93.98 USD0.28-3.589.5MOn
8 May 2026112.5 USD0.2%109.9 USD93.64 USD0.30-6.6610.8MOn
1 May 2026112.3 USD-1.5%109.7 USD93.31 USD0.13-5.0112.4MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.