Ticker Options Intelligence

AFL options intelligence

Aflac Incorporated options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 41 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 00:59 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

AFL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 4.5%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.70

Call-side skew

Trend fit 70

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +1.5%

RS 5.1

Expected move 4.5%
Put-call volume 0.70
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.41
Max pain 125.00
Underlying 127.48
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 960

Research Brief

AFL has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 121.76–133.20; The largest call open-interest concentration is 139.00; the largest put concentration is 125.00. The most active strike by current volume is 130.00.

Priced range121.76–133.20
Call concentration139.00
Put concentration125.00
Max pain reference125.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 121.76 to 133.20. Max pain at 125.00 sits inside that range, 1.9% below spot.

Spot Max pain
121.76127.48 ± 5.72133.20
Confirmation level

A close beyond 133.20 or below 121.76 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 41/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 23/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure23 × 42%
+9.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement70 × 26%
+18.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility47 × 10%
+4.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score41.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 139.00; the largest put concentration is 125.00. The most active strike by current volume is 130.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
60.00-52.9%
31
0
65.00-49.0%
31
109
115.00-9.8%
9
5
118.00-7.4%
23
46
119.00-6.7%
6
29
121.00-5.1%
3
11
123.00-3.5%
39
97
124.00-2.7%
28
180
125.00-1.9%
61
37
126.00-1.2%
12
35
127.00-0.4%
28
134
128.000.4%
100
18
129.001.2%
25
10
130.002.0%
306
4
134.005.1%
21
0
139.009.0%
549
20
140.009.8%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.83× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.41 7 Aug 7d
0.27 14 Aug 14d
0.25 21 Aug 21d
0.23 28 Aug 28d
0.23 4 Sep 35d
0.24 11 Sep 42d
0.22 18 Sep 49d
0.22 20 Nov 112d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

103
105
107
109
111
113
115
117
119
121
123
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
960 / 960
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Short-dated OTM call concentration

94/100
Primary intent Short-dated OTM call concentration

Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $604872 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+23
1W price+1.5%
Call premium62%
Put premium38%
Notional split C 62% / P 38% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 70/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · OTM
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 575 contracts traded, $160938 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$160938
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 28 contracts traded, $99090 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$99090
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 604 contracts traded, $83688 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$83688
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 80 contracts traded, $47270 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$47270
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM calls cluster with 230 contracts traded, $44205 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$44205

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close127.48
1W+1.5%
RS5.1
Fair value+30.3%
Options pressure23
Speculation41
Volatility47
Trend fit70

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 4.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.41 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.70 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:07 Bullish
Pressure 56
Move 3.3%
30 Jul 10:05 Bullish
Pressure 85
Move 2.4%
31 Jul 10:02 Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 1.1%
31 Jul 13:53 Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 1.5%
31 Jul 15:42 Mixed
Pressure -7
Move 1.9%
31 Jul 15:59 Mixed
Pressure -6
Move 2.0%
1 Aug 23:59 Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 4.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 31
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 31
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 20
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 17
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike85.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike90.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts98
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.06
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.27
Put-call1.75
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.16
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.09
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts88
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.49
Skew-0.06
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.28
Skew-0.15
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.28
Skew-0.08
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.23
Skew0.01
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.27
Skew0.04

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAFL260821C00131000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike131.00
Volume384
OI278
IV0.23
ContractAFL260807C00130000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike130.00
Volume206
OI306
IV0.41
ContractAFL270115P00115000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike115.00
Volume183
OI318
IV0.26
ContractAFL270115P00110000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike110.00
Volume169
OI750
IV0.27
ContractAFL260821C00132000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike132.00
Volume114
OI9
IV0.24
ContractAFL270115P00120000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike120.00
Volume111
OI103
IV0.24
ContractAFL260821C00133000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike133.00
Volume97
OI257
IV0.23
ContractAFL260918P00115000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike115.00
Volume72
OI414
IV0.27