- The trend backdrop is active with a 3-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
NMR
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR · Financial Services · Capital Markets
Latest close
9.81 USD
4.4%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 15.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 93.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.4%, after a 11.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 55/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 57/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high; volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 3d.
Setup score
67
out of 100
Latest Close
9.81 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
4.4%
latest completed week
4W Return
11.6%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
25.6%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
75.0%
39 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.6x
vs 13-week average
- 4 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
4.4%
Latest completed week; four-week move 11.6%.
Indicator stack
52/67
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 57.01%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
55/100 conviction; expected move 5.9%.
News sentiment
57/100
47 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
3d
Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 15.2% above the Trend Line and sits at 93.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.4%, after a 11.6% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.6612-week average 0.44
12-week confirmation
Trend active3/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership8/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.66Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers44 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 4 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 11.6% over four weeks, 25.6% over 12 weeks, and 50.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 3 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak3 weeks
Active weeks in one year39
Trend breadth75.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.71Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change55.3%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership14.57Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change145.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 88%
Model confidence 84%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength23/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 78; rank 1 is best.
Value38/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 63; rank 1 is best.
Quality36/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 65; rank 1 is best.
Momentum38/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 63; rank 1 is best.
Growth38/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 63; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- - Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- - Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 45.6% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 25.0% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- -10.3% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 4.9% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 5.6% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 6.3% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 4/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- - Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- - Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 21.4x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
NMR shows volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 25.10, expected move of 5.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Conviction55/100
Expected move5.9%
Put/call volume25.10
Insider activity20 / 0
20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment57/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 47 relevant articles.
19 positive · 25 neutral · 3 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move5.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-2.5%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher16 of 269 weeks finished lower.
Best week+8.4%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-14.6%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+4.4%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains4
Modest gains12
Flat weeks1
Modest losses7
Sharp losses2
Recent vol2.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.5% / -3.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Financial Services
4-week rank14 / 100
Group average4.7%
Trend breadth58.0%
Trend58.0%active weekly trend signals
MD88.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Capital Markets
4-week rank13 / 84
Group average-3.8%
Trend breadth29.8%
Trend29.8%active weekly trend signals
MD40.5%positive activity pressure
RS17.9%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape62/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 62/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis42/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 3/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 8/12.
Activity pressure 0.66; 4 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 57.01%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 57.01% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors32/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 50 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options37/100NMR shows volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 25.10, expected move of 5.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 5.9% Sentiment57/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 47 relevant articles.
Nomura (NMR) Is a Great Choice for 'Trend' Investors, Here's Why Insiders20 / 020 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Research flow2 items1 recent research articles and 1 Market Watch posts are available.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 9.81 USD | 4.4% | 8.51 USD | 5.98 USD | 0.71 | 14.57 | 3.6M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 9.40 USD | -2.7% | 8.46 USD | 5.94 USD | 0.67 | 9.68 | 5.7M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 9.66 USD | 6.6% | 8.42 USD | 5.91 USD | 0.71 | 11.51 | 6.5M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 9.06 USD | 3.1% | 8.37 USD | 5.87 USD | 0.63 | 6.51 | 4.2M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 8.79 USD | -2.0% | 8.32 USD | 5.83 USD | 0.46 | 5.95 | 6.3M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 8.97 USD | 2.7% | 8.27 USD | 5.80 USD | 0.18 | 5.85 | 7.1M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 8.73 USD | 3.8% | 8.21 USD | 5.76 USD | -0.20 | 4.32 | 8.4M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 8.41 USD | 3.7% | 8.16 USD | 5.73 USD | -0.56 | 1.37 | 6.4M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 8.11 USD | 0.0% | 8.11 USD | 5.69 USD | -0.72 | -4.48 | 7.2M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 8.11 USD | 1.4% | 8.08 USD | 5.66 USD | -0.81 | -2.97 | 6.4M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 8.00 USD | 0.6% | 8.03 USD | 5.63 USD | -0.79 | -3.30 | 6.8M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 7.95 USD | 1.8% | 7.99 USD | 5.60 USD | -0.70 | -3.53 | 6.7M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 7.81 USD | -0.8% | 7.95 USD | 5.57 USD | -0.61 | -2.81 | 6.5M | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 7.87 USD | -8.6% | 7.92 USD | 5.54 USD | -0.57 | -0.92 | 10.5M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.