Ticker Options Intelligence

NMR options intelligence

Nomura Holdings Inc ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 55 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 18:30 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

NMR currently carries volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.43.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 5.9%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.43

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 25.10

Put-side skew

Trend fit 3

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -1.3%

RS 11.4

Expected move 5.9%
Put-call volume 25.10
Volume / OI 0.43
Reference IV 0.88
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 9.81
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 21

Research Brief

NMR has a volatility chain read with 55/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.24–10.38; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 7.50.

Priced range9.24–10.38
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 9.24 to 10.38. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 1.9% above spot.

Spot Max pain
9.249.81 ± 0.5710.38
Confirmation level

A close beyond 10.38 or below 9.24 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 55/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation18 × 22%
+3.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement3 × 26%
+0.8

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility79 × 10%
+7.9

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score54.6Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 7.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
7.50-23.5%
3
5
10.001.9%
115
1
12.5027.4%
0
0
15.0052.9%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.07× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.88 21 Aug 21d
0.77 18 Sep 49d
0.91 16 Oct 77d
0.82 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
21 / 21
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

80/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $55654 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-100
1W price-1.3%
Call premium9%
Put premium91%
Notional split C 9% / P 91% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.43 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 3/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ATM
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 268 contracts traded, $29480 estimated gross traded notional, and 53% of visible notional.
$29480
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM puts cluster with 252 contracts traded, $20790 estimated gross traded notional, and 37% of visible notional.
$20790
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $2325 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$2325
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $1768 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$1768
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $425 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$425

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close9.68
1W-1.3%
RS11.4
Fair value+60.7%
Options pressure-100
Speculation18
Volatility79
Trend fit3

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.9% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.88 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 25.10 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.43 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:16 Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 7.9%
30 Jul 10:12 Bullish
Pressure 46
Move 6.4%
30 Jul 16:41 Volatility
Pressure -75
Move 7.4%
30 Jul 17:18 Volatility
Pressure -75
Move 7.4%
31 Jul 17:30 Volatility
Pressure -100
Move 5.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike7.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike10.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 115
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV0.88
Put-call0.75
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts1
Avg IV0.77
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts8
Avg IV0.91
Put-call25.50
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts6
Avg IV0.82
Put-call38.43

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.79
Skew0.48
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.77
Put IV-
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.52
Skew0.18
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.84
Put IV0.70
Skew-0.15

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractNMR260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.77
ContractNMR260821P00015000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.50
ContractNMR270115P00010000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume268
OI274
IV0.40
ContractNMR261016P00010000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume252
OI357
IV0.42
ContractNMR261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume3
OI138
IV0.34
ContractNMR270115C00012500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume3
OI34
IV0.62
ContractNMR260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume2
OI115
IV0.30
ContractNMR261016C00007500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume2
OI21
IV0.57