NVS NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Novartis AG ADR · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

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Latest close 155.0 USD
0.8% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 3.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 81.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.8%, after a -0.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 30/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 59/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 88d.

Setup score 65 out of 100
Latest Close 155.0 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 0.8% latest completed week
4W Return -0.3% short-term follow-through
12W Return 5.8% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.1x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 67-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 3 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 0.8% Latest completed week; four-week move -0.3%. Indicator stack 100/64 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 55.98% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Mixed 30/100 conviction; expected move 5.7%. News sentiment 59/100 50 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 88d Next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 3.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 81.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.8%, after a -0.3% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.7412-week average 0.62

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure2/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership9/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.74Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers33 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 3 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -0.3% over four weeks, 5.8% over 12 weeks, and 35.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 67 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W0.8%
4W-0.3%
12W5.8%
26W8.6%
52W35.7%
Active trend streak67 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.13Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change140.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership3.27Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-44.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 97%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength60/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 41; rank 1 is best.
Value19/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Quality97/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
Momentum81/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 20; rank 1 is best.
Growth17/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
23.1x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
5.3x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
15.1x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
6.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
74.4%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
30.4%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
37.7%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
16.7%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
0.8%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-6.6%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-15.4%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
3.1%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
2.3%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
5.4%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.9x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

NVS shows mixed options pressure with a 30/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.75, expected move of 5.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction30/100
Expected move5.7%
Put/call volume0.75
Pressure2
Speculation8
Volatility41
Trend agreement90
Open options detail
Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment59/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 50 relevant articles.

20 positive · 28 neutral · 2 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings88dNext report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move5.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-6.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+5.7%Week of 26 Jun.
Worst week-5.0%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+0.8%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains3
Modest gains11
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses3
Recent vol2.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.5% / -2.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape69/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 69/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis59/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 2/12, relative leadership 9/12.

Activity pressure 0.74; 3 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.98%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.98% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors64/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 21 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options56/100

NVS shows mixed options pressure with a 30/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.75, expected move of 5.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 5.7% Sentiment59/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 50 relevant articles.

ChrysCapital acquires 70.68% stake in Novartis India Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings88d

Next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow2 items

1 recent research articles and 1 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 2026155.0 USD0.8%150.3 USD112.2 USD0.133.279.9MOn
17 Jul 2026153.8 USD-0.2%149.6 USD111.8 USD0.232.129.1MOn
10 Jul 2026154.1 USD-3.7%148.9 USD111.4 USD-0.021.008.2MOn
3 Jul 2026159.9 USD2.9%148.1 USD111.0 USD-0.066.407.6MOn
26 Jun 2026155.4 USD5.7%147.0 USD110.5 USD-0.325.8918.3MOn
19 Jun 2026147.1 USD-3.9%146.0 USD110.1 USD-0.69-1.966.8MOn
12 Jun 2026153.1 USD2.6%145.3 USD109.8 USD-0.653.049.8MOn
5 Jun 2026149.2 USD-0.7%144.4 USD109.4 USD-0.821.0711.1MOn
29 May 2026150.2 USD-1.2%143.5 USD109.0 USD-0.91-0.705.3MOn
22 May 2026152.0 USD2.7%142.5 USD108.6 USD-0.902.035.8MOn
15 May 2026148.1 USD1.4%141.7 USD108.2 USD-0.920.396.6MOn
8 May 2026146.0 USD-0.4%141.0 USD107.8 USD-0.84-0.616.2MOn
1 May 2026146.6 USD0.8%140.3 USD107.5 USD-0.672.208.4MOn
24 Apr 2026145.5 USD-4.3%139.7 USD107.2 USD-0.482.447.4MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.