Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
NVS options intelligence
Novartis AG ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
45
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 21:57 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
NVS currently carries bearish options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.
Expected move
3.6%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.08
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.21
Balanced tape
Trend fit
89
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.1%
RS -0.9
Expected move
3.6%
Put-call volume
1.21
Volume / OI
0.08
Reference IV
0.33
Max pain
155.00
Underlying
156.33
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
379
Research Brief
NVS has a bearish chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 150.73–161.93; The largest call open-interest concentration is 160.00; the largest put concentration is 150.00. The most active strike by current volume is 160.00.
Priced range150.73–161.93
Call concentration160.00
Put concentration150.00
Max pain reference155.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 150.73 to 161.93. Max pain at 155.00 sits inside that range, 0.9% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
150.73156.33 ± 5.60161.93
Confirmation level
A close beyond 161.93 or below 150.73 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 45/100
Pressure is 21/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure21 × 42%
+8.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement89 × 26%
+23.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility37 × 10%
+3.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 160.00; the largest put concentration is 150.00. The most active strike by current volume is 160.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
110.00-29.6%
5
24
120.00-23.2%
0
13
125.00-20.0%
0
21
130.00-16.8%
0
203
135.00-13.6%
3
158
140.00-10.4%
6
1283
145.00-7.2%
58
1598
150.00-4.0%
543
371
155.00-0.9%
2147
762
160.002.3%
2390
7
165.005.5%
1941
2
170.008.7%
1572
0
175.0011.9%
54
0
180.0015.1%
175
0
185.0018.3%
24
0
200.0027.9%
6
0
220.0040.7%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$6.4MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak165.00+$1.5M
Negative peak150.00-$4.3M
Nearest balance155.95Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
105.00-32.8%
-$83,323
110.00-29.6%
+$37,222
115.00-26.4%
-$125,558
120.00-23.2%
-$219,071
125.00-20.0%
-$340,105
130.00-16.8%
-$720,369
135.00-13.6%
-$577,046
140.00-10.4%
-$1.6M
145.00-7.2%
-$2.5M
150.00-4.0%
-$4.3M
155.00-0.9%
-$250,174
160.002.3%
+$1.1M
165.005.5%
+$1.5M
170.008.7%
+$930,129
175.0011.9%
+$355,509
180.0015.1%
+$272,726
185.0018.3%
+$151,312
190.0021.5%
+$84,113
195.0024.7%
+$9,537
200.0027.9%
+$72,774
210.0034.3%
+$34,760
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.33
21 Aug
9d
0.28
18 Sep
37d
0.28
16 Oct
65d
0.28
20 Nov
100d
0.28
18 Dec
128d
0.27
15 Jan
156d
0.27
17 Jun
309d
0.25
17 Dec
492d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 379 / 379
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $5.5M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-21
1W price+0.1%
Call premium35%
Put premium65%
Notional split
C 35% / P 65%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.08
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
89/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 636 contracts traded, $1.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$1.4M
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 682 contracts traded, $987,635 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$987,635
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 292 contracts traded, $911,914 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$911,914
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 2182 contracts traded, $859,150 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$859,150
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1433 contracts traded, $669,220 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$669,220
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank82th
Volume/OI rank73th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close156.33
1W+0.1%
RS-0.9
Fair value+38.3%
Options pressure-21
Speculation42
Volatility37
Trend fit89
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 4.8% · 11 sessions
9th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.29 · 11 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.22 · 11 sessions
45th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
5 Aug 15:00
Bearish
Pressure -28
Move 4.5%
5 Aug 16:20
Bearish
Pressure -30
Move 4.5%
5 Aug 17:50
Bearish
Pressure -32
Move 4.5%
5 Aug 19:10
Bearish
Pressure -32
Move 4.4%
6 Aug 13:26
Bearish
Pressure -30
Move 4.5%
6 Aug 15:00
Bearish
Pressure -33
Move 4.3%
6 Aug 16:20
Bearish
Pressure -33
Move 4.3%
6 Aug 18:00
Bearish
Pressure -41
Move 4.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike110.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 21 · OI 24
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 13
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 21
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 3 · OI 203
Strike140.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 6
Puts · V 2 · OI 158
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts33
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.10
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts39
Avg IV0.28
Put-call2.01
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts35
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.40
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.36
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts45
Avg IV0.28
Put-call5.43
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.27
Skew-0.07
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.27
Skew-0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.27
Skew-0.03
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.26
Skew-0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.25
Skew-0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNVS271217P00180000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike180.00
Volume-
OI186
IV0.23
ContractNVS261120P00120000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike120.00
Volume-
OI148
IV0.41
ContractNVS271217P00095000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI50
IV0.30
ContractNVS271217P00120000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike120.00
Volume-
OI40
IV0.28
ContractNVS260821C00185000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike185.00
Volume-
OI24
IV0.70
ContractNVS280121C00085000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike85.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.00
ContractNVS271217P00090000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike90.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.33
ContractNVS260918P00165000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike165.00
Volume-
OI17
IV0.27
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.