OVLY NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Oak Valley Bancorp · Financial Services · Banks - Regional

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Latest close 33.87 USD
3.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 2.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 80.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.9%, after a 0.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 55/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 88d.

Setup score 50 out of 100
Latest Close 33.87 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 3.9% latest completed week
4W Return 0.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return 1.5% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.7x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 55-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • Next-week expectancy is negative at 44.79% based on similar historical setup states.
  • 3 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 3.9% Latest completed week; four-week move 0.0%. Indicator stack 100/0 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 44.79% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 55/100 42 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 88d Next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 2.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 80.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.9%, after a 0.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.6712-week average 0.75

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure4/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership1/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.67Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers33 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 3 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 0.0% over four weeks, 1.5% over 12 weeks, and 29.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 55 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W3.9%
4W0.0%
12W1.5%
26W7.2%
52W29.8%
Active trend streak55 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.95Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-1195.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership0.39Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change112.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 100%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength97/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
Value94/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
Quality82/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 19; rank 1 is best.
Momentum71/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 30; rank 1 is best.
Growth12/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
11.7x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
3.1x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
4.1x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
25.9%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
94.7%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
34.3%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
37.6%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
40.3%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-5.0%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-3.2%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.1%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-4.8x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity5 / 2

5 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment55/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 42 relevant articles.

14 positive · 25 neutral · 3 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings88dNext report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-5.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+6.4%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-5.4%Week of 27 Feb.
Latest week+3.9%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains2
Modest gains10
Flat weeks0
Modest losses13
Sharp losses1
Recent vol2.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.2% / -2.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape52/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 52/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis48/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 4/12, relative leadership 1/12.

Activity pressure 0.67; 3 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 44.79%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 44.79% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors86/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 59; Small Cap Core rank 22 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment55/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 42 relevant articles.

Donald Barton trust (NASDAQ: OVLY) plans sale after recent stock disposals Insiders5 / 2

5 acquisitions and 2 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings88d

Next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202633.87 USD3.9%33.02 USD27.06 USD-0.950.39162.7KOn
24 Jul 202632.61 USD-2.6%32.87 USD27.01 USD-0.96-2.74165.5KOn
17 Jul 202633.47 USD-0.4%32.78 USD26.97 USD-0.67-1.79118.9KOn
10 Jul 202633.61 USD-0.7%32.68 USD26.91 USD-0.33-5.48101.4KOn
3 Jul 202633.86 USD0.5%32.55 USD26.85 USD0.09-3.21127.2KOn
26 Jun 202633.68 USD-1.0%32.35 USD26.79 USD0.38-2.96311.2KOn
19 Jun 202634.03 USD-2.7%32.15 USD26.72 USD0.34-6.40333.6KOn
12 Jun 202634.99 USD2.3%31.95 USD26.66 USD0.30-1.33363.2KOn
5 Jun 202634.21 USD4.0%31.73 USD26.59 USD-0.08-1.28457.5KOn
29 May 202632.91 USD-2.5%31.53 USD26.52 USD-0.24-9.35363.7KOn
22 May 202633.76 USD3.0%31.33 USD26.45 USD-0.12-4.45257.3KOn
15 May 202632.78 USD-1.7%31.12 USD26.37 USD-0.07-6.1291.3KOn
8 May 202633.36 USD-0.5%30.88 USD26.31 USD0.39-4.87138.3KOn
1 May 202633.52 USD-0.8%30.62 USD26.23 USD0.640.68192.6KOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.