FERG NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Ferguson Plc · Industrials · Industrial Distribution

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Latest close 234.3 USD
1.6% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -2.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 45.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.6%, after a 1.8% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 57/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 60/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 7d.

Setup score 44 out of 100
Latest Close 234.3 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 1.6% latest completed week
4W Return 1.8% short-term follow-through
12W Return -2.5% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 69.2% 36 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.2x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 58.92% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 1.6% Latest completed week; four-week move 1.8%. Indicator stack 38/23 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 58.92% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Bullish 57/100 conviction; expected move 9.3%. News sentiment 60/100 63 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 7d Next report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -2.2% below the Trend Line and sits at 45.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.6%, after a 1.8% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.2x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1612-week average 0.34

12-week confirmation

Trend active1/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.16Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers44 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 4 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 1.8% over four weeks, -2.5% over 12 weeks, and 7.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W1.6%
4W1.8%
12W-2.5%
26W-6.5%
52W7.1%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year36
Trend breadth69.2%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.89Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-134.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-8.93Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change19.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 02 Aug 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 46% Model confidence 43%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength78/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
Value64/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 37; rank 1 is best.
Quality61/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 40; rank 1 is best.
Momentum65/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 36; rank 1 is best.
Growth63/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 38; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
-
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
-
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
0/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
1.5%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
1.5%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

FERG shows bullish options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.02, expected move of 9.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction57/100
Expected move9.3%
Put/call volume0.02
Pressure96
Speculation45
Volatility70
Trend agreement0
Open options detail
Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment60/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 63 relevant articles.

33 positive · 30 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings7dNext report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move9.3%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-13.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+9.2%Week of 10 Apr.
Worst week-11.4%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+1.6%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains3
Modest gains12
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses3
Recent vol3.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split29/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.9% / -3.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape41/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 41/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis5/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 1/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.16; 4 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 58.92%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 58.92% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors66/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 45 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options50/100

FERG shows bullish options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.02, expected move of 9.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 9.3% Sentiment60/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 63 relevant articles.

Optiver Holding B.V. Buys 16,695 Shares of Ferguson plc $FERG Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings7d

Next report is scheduled for 10 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026234.3 USD1.6%239.6 USD201.5 USD-0.89-8.937.9MOff
24 Jul 2026230.7 USD-0.6%239.3 USD200.9 USD-1.01-9.585.0MOff
17 Jul 2026232.0 USD2.0%239.1 USD200.5 USD-0.77-9.786.3MOff
10 Jul 2026227.5 USD-1.2%238.9 USD199.9 USD-0.52-13.116.6MOff
3 Jul 2026230.2 USD-3.5%238.7 USD199.5 USD-0.38-11.104.6MOff
26 Jun 2026238.6 USD0.1%239.2 USD198.9 USD-0.40-6.126.2MOff
19 Jun 2026238.3 USD3.6%239.6 USD198.3 USD-0.63-8.586.7MOff
12 Jun 2026230.1 USD0.2%239.4 USD197.7 USD-0.80-11.137.3MOff
5 Jun 2026229.6 USD1.6%239.8 USD197.2 USD-0.95-11.036.7MOff
29 May 2026226.0 USD1.2%240.3 USD196.6 USD-0.79-14.806.0MOff
22 May 2026223.3 USD-0.2%241.0 USD196.0 USD-0.45-14.628.1MOff
15 May 2026223.8 USD-6.9%241.8 USD195.5 USD-0.11-13.706.7MOn
8 May 2026240.4 USD-8.7%242.1 USD195.0 USD0.16-7.157.3MOn
1 May 2026263.2 USD0.3%241.7 USD194.3 USD0.294.215.9MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.