Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
FERG options intelligence
Ferguson Plc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
57
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 19:02 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
FERG currently carries bullish options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.21.
Expected move
9.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.21
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.02
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.6%
RS -8.9
Expected move
9.3%
Put-call volume
0.02
Volume / OI
0.21
Reference IV
0.47
Max pain
240.00
Underlying
234.33
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
334
Research Brief
FERG has a bullish chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 212.53–256.13; The largest call open-interest concentration is 290.00; the largest put concentration is 195.00. The most active strike by current volume is 250.00.
Priced range212.53–256.13
Call concentration290.00
Put concentration195.00
Max pain reference240.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 212.53 to 256.13. Max pain at 240.00 sits inside that range, 2.4% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
212.53234.33 ± 21.80256.13
Confirmation level
A close beyond 256.13 or below 212.53 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 57/100
Pressure is 96/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure96 × 42%
+40.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation45 × 22%
+9.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility70 × 10%
+7.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 290.00; the largest put concentration is 195.00. The most active strike by current volume is 250.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
16
150.00-36.0%
0
230
185.00-21.1%
0
102
190.00-18.9%
0
1039
195.00-16.8%
0
63
200.00-14.7%
0
87
210.00-10.4%
0
111
220.00-6.1%
24
63
230.00-1.8%
53
72
240.002.4%
107
42
250.006.7%
178
26
260.0011.0%
49
0
270.0015.2%
890
0
280.0019.5%
115
0
290.0023.8%
1003
0
300.0028.0%
14
0
310.0032.3%
20
0
350.0049.4%
11
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$28,633Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak250.00+$116,921
Negative peak210.00-$68,885
Nearest balance235.94Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
155.00-33.9%
-$182
160.00-31.7%
-$1,127
165.00-29.6%
-$11,837
170.00-27.5%
-$3,847
175.00-25.3%
-$18,837
180.00-23.2%
-$24,119
185.00-21.1%
-$6,187
190.00-18.9%
-$5,508
195.00-16.8%
-$31,625
200.00-14.7%
-$31,632
210.00-10.4%
-$68,885
220.00-6.1%
-$47,054
230.00-1.8%
-$64,755
240.002.4%
+$44,348
250.006.7%
+$116,921
260.0011.0%
+$30,637
270.0015.2%
+$64,032
280.0019.5%
+$30,442
290.0023.8%
+$29,606
300.0028.0%
+$22,321
310.0032.3%
+$730
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.47
21 Aug
21d
0.39
18 Sep
49d
0.38
20 Nov
112d
0.36
18 Dec
140d
0.37
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
190
195
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 334 / 334
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $747,296 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+96
1W price+1.6%
Call premium84%
Put premium16%
Notional split
C 84% / P 16%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.21
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
10 Aug
Matched earnings event is 7 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1036 contracts traded, $485,240 estimated gross traded notional, and 65% of visible notional.
$485,240
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 30 contracts traded, $121,050 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$121,050
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 144 contracts traded, $64,156 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$64,156
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $35,050 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$35,050
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $29,500 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$29,500
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close234.33
1W+1.6%
RS-8.9
Fair value+16.3%
Options pressure96
Speculation45
Volatility70
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:10
Bullish
Pressure 79
Move 9.3%
30 Jul 10:06
Bearish
Pressure -29
Move 9.0%
31 Jul 10:03
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.0%
1 Aug 09:00
Bullish
Pressure 96
Move 9.5%
2 Aug 18:02
Bullish
Pressure 96
Move 9.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 16
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.47
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.39
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.03
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.36
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts64
Avg IV0.37
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.49
Skew0.05
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.41
Skew0.07
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.41
Skew0.06
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.39
Skew0.05
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.40
Skew0.07
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractFERG261120C00280000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike280.00
Volume1031
OI9
IV0.34
ContractFERG260821C00250000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike250.00
Volume142
OI178
IV0.44
ContractFERG261120P00270000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike270.00
Volume30
OI-
IV0.36
ContractFERG260821C00240000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike240.00
Volume15
OI107
IV0.46
ContractFERG270219C00220000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike220.00
Volume10
OI10
IV0.37
ContractFERG270219C00230000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike230.00
Volume10
OI10
IV0.37
ContractFERG261218C00260000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike260.00
Volume5
OI31
IV0.35
ContractFERG260821C00280000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike280.00
Volume1
OI115
IV0.26
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.