- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 57.40% based on similar historical setup states.
TDG
NYSE
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Transdigm Group Incorporated · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Latest close
1,254 USD
1.4%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 33.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.4%, after a -7.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bearish with 53/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 58/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 3d.
Setup score
37
out of 100
Latest Close
1,254 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
1.4%
latest completed week
4W Return
-7.0%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
3.2%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
9.6%
5 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.9x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
1.4%
Latest completed week; four-week move -7.0%.
Indicator stack
5/49
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 57.40%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bearish
53/100 conviction; expected move 7.9%.
News sentiment
58/100
45 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
3d
Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 33.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.4%, after a -7.0% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.9x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4012-week average 0.19
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.40Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -7.0% over four weeks, 3.2% over 12 weeks, and -15.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year5
Trend breadth9.6%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.26Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-70.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-10.39Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-69.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 94%
Model confidence 90%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength11/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best.
Value11/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best.
Quality73/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 28; rank 1 is best.
Momentum18/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 83; rank 1 is best.
Growth84/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 34.2x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 7.3x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 20.3x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 2.4% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 59.0% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 46.7% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 24.8% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 18.6% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 13.3% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 6.4% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 4.5% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 7.3% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 1.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 8.3% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 5.9x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBearish
TDG shows bearish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.84, expected move of 7.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction53/100
Expected move7.9%
Put/call volume1.84
Insider activity2 / 18
2 acquisitions and 18 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment58/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 45 relevant articles.
22 positive · 22 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move7.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-17.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+5.8%Week of 19 Jun.
Worst week-9.9%Week of 6 Feb.
Latest week+1.4%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains5
Modest gains9
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses6
Recent vol3.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.7% / -3.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Industrials
4-week rank75 / 100
Group average-3.6%
Trend breadth52.0%
Trend52.0%active weekly trend signals
MD54.0%positive activity pressure
RS53.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Aerospace & Defense
4-week rank42 / 82
Group average-10.6%
Trend breadth23.2%
Trend23.2%active weekly trend signals
MD34.1%positive activity pressure
RS26.8%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape35/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 35/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis30/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.40; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 57.40%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 57.40% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors28/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 30 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options52/100TDG shows bearish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.84, expected move of 7.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bearish · Put-side pressure · Expected move 7.9% Sentiment58/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 45 relevant articles.
TransDigm to acquire Cleveland-based Prince & Izant for $1B — plus 2 more M&A deals to know Insiders2 / 182 acquisitions and 18 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 1,254 USD | 1.4% | 1,267 USD | 1,171 USD | 0.26 | -10.39 | 1.6M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 1,237 USD | 1.8% | 1,270 USD | 1,168 USD | 0.40 | -11.35 | 1.7M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 1,214 USD | -6.0% | 1,273 USD | 1,165 USD | 0.69 | -14.08 | 1.8M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 1,291 USD | -4.2% | 1,275 USD | 1,162 USD | 0.90 | -10.75 | 1.3M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 1,348 USD | 1.8% | 1,275 USD | 1,158 USD | 0.87 | -6.12 | 1.7M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 1,325 USD | -0.3% | 1,275 USD | 1,154 USD | 0.73 | -6.25 | 2.3M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 1,328 USD | 5.8% | 1,276 USD | 1,151 USD | 0.44 | -8.66 | 2.0M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 1,256 USD | 1.4% | 1,277 USD | 1,147 USD | 0.24 | -13.27 | 1.5M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 1,239 USD | -1.6% | 1,279 USD | 1,143 USD | -0.00 | -14.47 | 1.9M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 1,258 USD | 3.7% | 1,281 USD | 1,140 USD | -0.27 | -15.82 | 1.7M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 1,214 USD | 5.6% | 1,283 USD | 1,136 USD | -0.58 | -18.19 | 2.3M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 1,149 USD | -5.4% | 1,287 USD | 1,133 USD | -0.84 | -22.40 | 1.9M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 1,215 USD | 5.3% | 1,291 USD | 1,130 USD | -0.81 | -18.32 | 2.2M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 1,154 USD | 0.5% | 1,293 USD | 1,126 USD | -0.92 | -21.06 | 1.6M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.