Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
TDG options intelligence
Transdigm Group Incorporated options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 15:47 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
TDG currently carries bearish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.25.
Expected move
7.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.25
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.84
Put-side skew
Trend fit
100
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+1.4%
RS -10.4
Expected move
7.9%
Put-call volume
1.84
Volume / OI
0.25
Reference IV
0.45
Max pain
1280.00
Underlying
1236.71
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
373
Research Brief
TDG has a bearish chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 1139.41–1334.01; The largest call open-interest concentration is 1340.00; the largest put concentration is 1080.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1340.00.
Priced range1139.41–1334.01
Call concentration1340.00
Put concentration1080.00
Max pain reference1280.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 1139.41 to 1334.01. Max pain at 1280.00 sits inside that range, 3.5% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
1139.411236.71 ± 97.301334.01
Confirmation level
A close beyond 1334.01 or below 1139.41 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 37/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure37 × 42%
+15.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation25 × 22%
+5.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement100 × 26%
+25.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility63 × 10%
+6.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 1340.00; the largest put concentration is 1080.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1340.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
624
1040.00-15.9%
0
282
1060.00-14.3%
0
632
1080.00-12.7%
1
284
1130.00-8.6%
2
19
1160.00-6.2%
8
13
1170.00-5.4%
11
66
1190.00-3.8%
0
34
1220.00-1.4%
32
11
1240.000.3%
46
10
1300.005.1%
60
53
1320.006.7%
7
26
1330.007.5%
44
0
1340.008.4%
71
43
1350.009.2%
23
4
1360.0010.0%
61
0
1370.0010.8%
32
0
1460.0018.1%
6
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.45
21 Aug
21d
0.34
18 Sep
49d
0.30
20 Nov
112d
0.32
18 Dec
140d
0.35
19 Feb
203d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
1000
1040
1080
1120
1140
1160
1180
1200
1220
1240
1260
1270
1290
1310
1330
1350
1370
1390
1410
1440
1480
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 373 / 373
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $7.5M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-37
1W price+1.4%
Call premium34%
Put premium66%
Notional split
C 34% / P 66%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.25
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
100/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 144 contracts traded, $2.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$2.1M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 32 contracts traded, $933005 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$933005
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 58 contracts traded, $809526 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$809526
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 39 contracts traded, $743230 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$743230
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 166 contracts traded, $615246 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$615246
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close1254.38
1W+1.4%
RS-10.4
Fair value+7.1%
Options pressure-37
Speculation25
Volatility63
Trend fit100
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:05
Bearish
Pressure -61
Move 10.0%
30 Jul 10:04
Mixed
Pressure -7
Move 8.3%
31 Jul 12:02
Bullish
Pressure 69
Move 7.9%
31 Jul 14:47
Bearish
Pressure -37
Move 7.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike660.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike720.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike740.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 16
Strike760.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike780.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike800.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike840.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 2 · OI 10
Strike880.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts105
Avg IV0.45
Put-call1.73
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts87
Avg IV0.34
Put-call4.28
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.15
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts92
Avg IV0.32
Put-call1.53
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts31
Avg IV0.35
Put-call1.60
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.46
Skew0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.38
Skew0.01
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.35
Skew0.33
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.03
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.32
Skew-0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTDG260918C01120000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1120.00
Volume-
OI59
IV0.45
ContractTDG270219P00900000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike900.00
Volume-
OI21
IV0.40
ContractTDG260918P00780000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike780.00
Volume-
OI16
IV0.72
ContractTDG270219P00780000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike780.00
Volume-
OI15
IV0.44
ContractTDG261120P01340000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike1340.00
Volume-
OI13
IV0.31
ContractTDG270219P01040000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike1040.00
Volume-
OI12
IV0.36
ContractTDG260918P00760000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike760.00
Volume-
OI12
IV0.69
ContractTDG260918P00720000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike720.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.75
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.