UGP NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

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Latest close 6.43 USD
2.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 22.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 96.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.9%, after a 29.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 39/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 58/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high; earnings are due in 13d.

Setup score 67 out of 100
Latest Close 6.43 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 2.9% latest completed week
4W Return 29.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return 7.7% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 96.2% 50 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.1x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 3-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • 4 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 2.9% Latest completed week; four-week move 29.6%. Indicator stack 63/56 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 39/100 conviction; expected move 24.2%. News sentiment 58/100 41 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 13d Next report is scheduled for 12 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 22.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 96.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.9%, after a 29.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.5212-week average 0.77

12-week confirmation

Trend active10/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure4/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.52Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers44 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 4 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 29.6% over four weeks, 7.7% over 12 weeks, and 128.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 3 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W2.9%
4W29.6%
12W7.7%
26W38.9%
52W128.3%
Active trend streak3 weeks
Active weeks in one year50
Trend breadth96.2%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.09Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change92.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership31.35Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change361.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength99/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Value98/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 3; rank 1 is best.
Quality77/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 24; rank 1 is best.
Momentum95/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 6; rank 1 is best.
Growth86/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 15; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
2.3x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
1.3x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
41.3%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
7.1%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
5.1%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
3.5%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
79.2%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
6.9%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
32.4%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
6.6%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
19.7%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
2.5%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
22.1%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.4x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

UGP shows mixed options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 24.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction39/100
Expected move24.2%
Put/call volume
Pressure12
Speculation0
Volatility96
Trend agreement93
Open options detail
Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment58/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 41 relevant articles.

15 positive · 26 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings13dNext report is scheduled for 12 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move24.2%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-2.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+18.3%Week of 10 Jul.
Worst week-9.0%Week of 29 May.
Latest week+2.9%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains8
Flat weeks1
Modest losses6
Sharp losses4
Recent vol6.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/19Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.6% / -2.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape62/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 62/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis57/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 10/12, activity pressure 4/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.52; 4 reversal markers Factors91/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Cornerstone Growth rank 4; Buyback Yield rank 20; Small Cap Core rank 2 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options59/100

UGP shows mixed options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 24.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 24.2% Sentiment58/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 41 relevant articles.

Ultrapar Participacoes (NYSE:UGP) Hits New 1-Year High - Time to Buy? Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings13d

Next report is scheduled for 12 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 20266.43 USD2.9%5.24 USD3.94 USD-0.0931.3518.4MOn
17 Jul 20266.25 USD4.2%5.15 USD3.92 USD-0.4628.5041.8MOn
10 Jul 20266.00 USD18.3%5.07 USD3.90 USD-0.8622.9520.0MOn
3 Jul 20265.07 USD2.2%5.00 USD3.88 USD-1.156.319.0MOff
26 Jun 20264.96 USD3.3%4.96 USD3.87 USD-1.156.7911.5MOff
19 Jun 20264.80 USD-1.8%4.92 USD3.86 USD-1.101.5113.9MOn
12 Jun 20264.89 USD1.2%4.89 USD3.85 USD-0.754.8416.0MOn
5 Jun 20264.83 USD-6.8%4.86 USD3.84 USD-0.324.6614.8MOn
29 May 20265.18 USD-9.0%4.83 USD3.83 USD0.3010.0814.7MOn
22 May 20265.69 USD-0.7%4.78 USD3.82 USD0.7623.5321.8MOn
15 May 20265.73 USD-6.2%4.72 USD3.80 USD0.9226.5919.9MOn
8 May 20266.11 USD2.3%4.65 USD3.78 USD1.1736.4613.9MOn
1 May 20265.97 USD3.8%4.57 USD3.76 USD1.2937.957.8MOn
24 Apr 20265.75 USD-3.0%4.50 USD3.74 USD1.4235.438.0MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.