ERIE NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Erie Indemnity Company · Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Open interactive chart View report data
Latest close 242.0 USD
8.3% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 22.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 8.3%, after a -6.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 33/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 4d.

Setup score 32 out of 100
Latest Close 242.0 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 8.3% latest completed week
4W Return -6.1% short-term follow-through
12W Return 12.1% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 0.0% 0 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.6x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 8.3% Latest completed week; four-week move -6.1%. Indicator stack 0/72 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Recent Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 33/100 conviction; expected move 8.3%. News sentiment 52/100 64 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 4d Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -1.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 22.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 8.3%, after a -6.1% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.6x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1312-week average 0.04

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.13Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -6.1% over four weeks, 12.1% over 12 weeks, and -29.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W8.3%
4W-6.1%
12W12.1%
26W-14.0%
52W-29.9%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year0
Trend breadth0.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.04Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change34.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-19.81Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change7.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 96%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength17/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 84; rank 1 is best.
Value25/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Quality75/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 26; rank 1 is best.
Momentum10/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 91; rank 1 is best.
Growth27/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 74; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework68/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
20.5x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
2.9x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
14.4x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
6.8%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
16.1%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
17.8%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
19.2%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
26.5%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
4.8%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-7.0%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
1.2%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
4/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.6%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.2x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

ERIE shows mixed options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.50, expected move of 8.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction33/100
Expected move8.3%
Put/call volume1.50
Pressure-10
Speculation11
Volatility62
Trend agreement79
Open options detail
Insider activity20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 64 relevant articles.

8 positive · 52 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move8.3%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-35.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher10 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+8.6%Week of 3 Jul.
Worst week-9.7%Week of 17 Jul.
Latest week+8.3%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains5
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses5
Recent vol5.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split22/30Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.9% / -3.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape28/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 28/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis21/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.13; No reversal markers Factors31/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 56; Small Cap Core rank 78 SVQF68/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 229.5 of 726 Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks Options54/100

ERIE shows mixed options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.50, expected move of 8.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 8.3% Sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 64 relevant articles.

Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Stock Gains Favor As Underwriting Rebounds Slow Growth Insiders20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings4d

Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026242.0 USD8.3%245.8 USD337.3 USD1.04-19.811.8MOff
24 Jul 2026223.6 USD-1.7%246.9 USD337.4 USD1.05-26.411.1MOff
17 Jul 2026227.3 USD-9.7%248.7 USD337.3 USD1.26-27.292.0MOff
10 Jul 2026251.8 USD-2.3%250.5 USD337.1 USD1.10-23.771.2MOff
3 Jul 2026257.8 USD8.6%251.6 USD336.8 USD0.77-21.43915.9KOff
26 Jun 2026237.4 USD7.9%252.8 USD336.4 USD0.37-27.801.3MOff
19 Jun 2026219.9 USD-2.4%254.6 USD336.2 USD-0.27-36.841.2MOff
12 Jun 2026225.4 USD-0.2%257.0 USD336.1 USD-0.61-34.50892.3KOff
5 Jun 2026225.9 USD6.0%259.0 USD335.9 USD-0.99-33.77830.6KOff
29 May 2026213.1 USD-5.0%260.8 USD335.8 USD-1.20-41.22703.6KOff
22 May 2026224.2 USD5.2%263.4 USD335.8 USD-1.16-37.31906.5KOff
15 May 2026213.1 USD-1.3%266.6 USD335.7 USD-1.10-40.54908.6KOff
8 May 2026215.9 USD0.4%270.0 USD335.7 USD-0.85-40.851.2MOff
1 May 2026215.0 USD-8.0%273.5 USD335.7 USD-0.64-38.811.3MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.