AVB NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

AvalonBay Communities Inc · Real Estate · Reit - Residential

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Latest close 185.6 USD
-2.1% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 4.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 67.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.1%, after a -4.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 36/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 53/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 88d.

Setup score 46 out of 100
Latest Close 185.6 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -2.1% latest completed week
4W Return -4.3% short-term follow-through
12W Return 1.8% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 17.3% 9 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.7x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 9-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • No major top-level risk cluster is currently dominant.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -2.1% Latest completed week; four-week move -4.3%. Indicator stack 41/66 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Bullish 36/100 conviction; expected move 4.4%. News sentiment 53/100 53 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 88d Next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 4.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 67.5% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.1%, after a -4.3% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.7612-week average 0.45

12-week confirmation

Trend active9/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.76Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -4.3% over four weeks, 1.8% over 12 weeks, and 3.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 9 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-2.1%
4W-4.3%
12W1.8%
26W5.6%
52W3.6%
Active trend streak9 weeks
Active weeks in one year9
Trend breadth17.3%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.97Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-18.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-5.14Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-140.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 100%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength15/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 86; rank 1 is best.
Value12/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Quality79/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 22; rank 1 is best.
Momentum25/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Growth9/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 92; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
26.4x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
8.8x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
19.4x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
5.3%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
52.7%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
31.0%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
63.1%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
3.5%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
3.4%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-11.3%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
3.7%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
1.5%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
4.9x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

AVB shows bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.36, expected move of 4.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction36/100
Expected move4.4%
Put/call volume0.36
Pressure50
Speculation3
Volatility33
Trend agreement44
Open options detail
Insider activity16 / 0

16 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 53 relevant articles.

10 positive · 41 neutral · 2 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings88dNext report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move4.4%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-6.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.2%Week of 26 Jun.
Worst week-5.2%Week of 19 Jun.
Latest week-2.1%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains3
Modest gains10
Flat weeks0
Modest losses10
Sharp losses3
Recent vol3.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol2.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.0% / -1.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape47/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 47/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis62/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 9/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.76; No reversal markers Factors32/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 27 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options52/100

AVB shows bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.36, expected move of 4.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 4.4% Sentiment53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 53 relevant articles.

Empyrean Capital Partners LP Buys Shares of 58,000 AvalonBay Communities, Inc. $AVB Insiders16 / 0

16 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings88d

Next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026185.6 USD-2.1%178.3 USD185.3 USD0.97-5.143.4MOn
24 Jul 2026189.6 USD-1.5%178.1 USD185.2 USD1.19-2.343.7MOn
17 Jul 2026192.5 USD0.4%177.8 USD185.0 USD1.35-1.804.7MOn
10 Jul 2026191.8 USD-1.1%177.2 USD184.9 USD1.19-4.074.2MOn
3 Jul 2026194.0 USD3.0%176.6 USD184.9 USD1.19-2.144.1MOn
26 Jun 2026188.3 USD7.2%175.9 USD184.7 USD1.22-3.326.3MOn
19 Jun 2026175.7 USD-5.2%175.6 USD184.6 USD1.07-12.386.1MOn
12 Jun 2026185.3 USD-1.4%175.6 USD184.5 USD1.25-7.416.2MOn
5 Jun 2026187.9 USD4.0%175.3 USD184.5 USD1.19-6.125.5MOn
29 May 2026180.8 USD-1.7%174.8 USD184.3 USD1.18-12.424.5MOff
22 May 2026183.9 USD2.7%174.4 USD184.2 USD1.32-10.276.2MOff
15 May 2026179.1 USD-1.8%174.5 USD184.0 USD0.89-12.364.7MOff
8 May 2026182.4 USD0.3%174.6 USD183.9 USD0.61-11.215.9MOff
1 May 2026181.7 USD5.4%174.6 USD183.8 USD0.11-10.096.9MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.